Photo: ajay_suresh · CC BY 2.0FEMA expects less hazard damage per building in Fairfax than in 91% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Fairfax gets an A for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 91% of U.S. towns, #61 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (69%), then hurricanes (10%). Flood insurance has paid 35 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Fairfax’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Fairfax faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Earthquakes
Tornadoes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Fairfax’s grade
River and rain flooding is 69% of the building damage FEMA expects in Fairfax, and Fairfax’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 82% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 10% (higher than 72% of U.S. census tracts).
A #61 of 253 in Virginia; lower expected damage per building than 91% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Fairfax’s residents live in 5 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, Fairfax has less expected damage per building than 76% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $4.8M a year in losses across Fairfax: $3.6M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Fairfax flood? Sometimes: 35 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Fairfax, from FEMA’s records: 3.8 per 1,000 homes, more than 53% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- Tropical Storm Ernesto1 claim · $35K
- Hurricane Floyd1 claim · $8K
Fairfax isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: the county.8 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Fairfax
Disasters that paid out in Fairfax itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Fairfax), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2016Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm$237K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
- 2012Hurricane Sandy$127K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
- 2012Severe Storms and Straight-line Winds$169K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
- 2010Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms$136K to the City of Fairfax for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2009Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm$94K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
- 2003Hurricane Isabel40 households applied for aid$7K aid approved$181K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
Show all 8
- 2003Severe Winter Storm, Record/near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,floodind, and Mudslide$70K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
- 2000Severe Winter Storms$92K to the City of Fairfax for repairs
has had 13 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Fairfax after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Fairfax archive →Fairfax and its neighbors
Fairfax is 5th of the 7 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | A+less damage than 98% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Long Branch | A+less damage than 97% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
| Merrifield | A+less damage than 97% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Fair Oaks | Aless damage than 92% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| Fairfax | Aless damage than 91% | river and rain flooding | 35 |
| Oakton | Aless damage than 86% | river and rain flooding | 12 |
| Mantua | A−less damage than 79% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Fairfax faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Fairfax
Is Fairfax at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Fairfax has lower expected damage per building than 91% of U.S. towns: A for hazard risk, #61 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (69%) and hurricanes (10%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Fairfax flood?
Flood insurance has paid 35 claims in Fairfax since 1978, $952K in all, or 3.8 per 1,000 homes, more than 53% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 5 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Tropical Storm Ernesto (1).
Is Fairfax in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In the county, 1.9% of all homes carry federal flood insurance.
How much is flood insurance in Fairfax?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Fairfax’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Fairfax?
By FEMA money that reached Fairfax, Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (2016): $237K to the City of Fairfax for repairs. By flood claims, Tropical Storm Ernesto: 1 paid, $35K.
Is Fairfax at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (69%), and Fairfax’s rate for it is lower than 82% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Fairfax.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Fairfax’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.