Photo: sailko · CC BY-SA 3.0FEMA expects less hazard damage per building in Oakton than in 86% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Oakton gets an A for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 86% of U.S. towns, #95 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (81%), then hurricanes (10%). Flood insurance has paid 12 claims here since 1979.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Oakton faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Oakton’s grade
River and rain flooding is 81% of the building damage FEMA expects in Oakton, and Oakton’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 66% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 10% (higher than 74% of U.S. census tracts).
A #95 of 253 in Virginia; lower expected damage per building than 86% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Oakton’s residents live in 10 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, Oakton has less expected damage per building than 63% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $6.7M a year in losses across Oakton: $5.7M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Oakton flood? Sometimes: 12 flood claims since 1979
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Oakton, from FEMA’s records: 0.8 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 82% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- Hurricane Fran1 claim · $37K
- The Mid-spring storms1 claim · $202
Oakton isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Fairfax County.1 federal disaster brought FEMA money to Oakton
Disasters that paid out in Oakton itself (aid to households or repair grants to Oakton), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2003Hurricane Isabel10 households applied for aid$5K aid approved
Fairfax County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Oakton after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Oakton archive →Oakton and its neighbors
Oakton is 4th of the 7 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merrifield | A+less damage than 97% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Fair Oaks | Aless damage than 92% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| Fairfax | Aless damage than 91% | river and rain flooding | 35 |
| Oakton | Aless damage than 86% | river and rain flooding | 12 |
| Difficult Run | A−less damage than 83% | river and rain flooding | 6 |
| Vienna | A−less damage than 81% | river and rain flooding | 14 |
| Wolf Trap | A−less damage than 81% | river and rain flooding | 6 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Oakton faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Oakton
Is Oakton at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Oakton has lower expected damage per building than 86% of U.S. towns: A for hazard risk, #95 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (81%) and hurricanes (10%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Oakton flood?
Flood insurance has paid 12 claims in Oakton since 1979, $77K in all, or 0.8 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 82% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from Hurricane Fran (1).
Is Oakton in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Fairfax County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Oakton?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Oakton’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Oakton?
By FEMA money that reached Oakton, Hurricane Isabel (2003): 10 households applied for aid, $5K approved. By flood claims, Hurricane Fran: 1 paid, $37K.
Is Oakton at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (81%), and Oakton’s rate for it is lower than 66% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Oakton.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Oakton’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.