Photo: McGhiever · CC BY-SA 3.0Less hazard damage per building is expected in St. Paul than in 76% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, St. Paul gets an A− for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 76% of U.S. towns, #55 of 274 in Minnesota. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (68%), then tornadoes (17%). Flood insurance has paid 44 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about St. Paul’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What St. Paul faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Tornadoes
Hail
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind St. Paul’s grade
River and rain flooding is 68% of the building damage FEMA expects in St. Paul, and St. Paul’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is lower than 66% of U.S. census tracts. Hail adds 13%, at a rate in the top 9% of U.S. census tracts.
A− #55 of 274 in Minnesota; lower expected damage per building than 76% of U.S. towns (21,298).
St. Paul’s residents live in 84 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Minnesota town has lower expected damage than 57% of U.S. towns; within the state, St. Paul has less expected damage per building than 80% of Minnesota towns.
Among the 400 U.S. cities of 100,000 or more, St. Paul has lower expected damage per building than 86% (#55 of 400). Because it is so big, its total expected yearly loss, $93.6M, is the 126th largest of those 400.
Does St. Paul flood? Sometimes: 44 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in St. Paul, from FEMA’s records: 0.3 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 94% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Severe flooding10 claims · $388K
St. Paul isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Ramsey County.6 federal disasters brought FEMA money to St. Paul
Disasters that paid out in St. Paul itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of St. Paul), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2019Severe Winter Storm, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding$1.2M to the City of St. Paul for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2014Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$1.4M to the City of St. Paul for repairs9 flood claims paid that year
- 2011Severe Storms and Flooding$867K to the City of St. Paul for repairs4 flood claims paid that year
- 2010Flooding$439K to the City of St. Paul for repairs
- 2001Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes$1.2M to the City of St. Paul for repairs11 flood claims paid that year
- 2000Severe Storms and Flooding$454K to the City of St. Paul for repairs
Ramsey County has had 15 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of St. Paul after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the St. Paul archive →St. Paul and its neighbors
St. Paul is 6th of the 8 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| West St. Paul | Aless damage than 88% | river and rain flooding | 4 |
| Roseville | A−less damage than 84% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
| Maplewood | A−less damage than 80% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
| Falcon Heights | A−less damage than 78% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Mendota Heights | A−less damage than 76% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| St. Paul | A−less damage than 76% | river and rain flooding | 44 |
| South St. Paul | A−less damage than 76% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Minneapolis | B+less damage than 72% | river and rain flooding | 108 |
| Lilydale | — | 772 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
| Mendota | — | 207 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what St. Paul faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Park in a garage or under cover when storms are forecast.
- Stay away from windows while it falls.
- Photograph roof and car damage for your insurer.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in St. Paul
Is St. Paul at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, St. Paul has lower expected damage per building than 76% of U.S. towns: A− for hazard risk, #55 of 274 in Minnesota. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (68%) and tornadoes (17%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does St. Paul flood?
Flood insurance has paid 44 claims in St. Paul since 1978, $1.1M in all, or 0.3 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 94% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 4 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Severe flooding (10).
Is St. Paul in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Ramsey County, 6% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in St. Paul?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for St. Paul’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in St. Paul?
By FEMA money that reached St. Paul, Severe Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides (2014): $1.4M to the City of St. Paul for repairs. By flood claims, Severe flooding: 10 paid, $388K.
Is St. Paul at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (68%), and St. Paul’s rate for it is lower than 66% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in St. Paul.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where St. Paul’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.