Photo: Michal Klajban · CC BY-SA 4.0Earthquake risk in Victoria runs 22 times the typical Canadian town’s: $0.66 per $1,000 a year
Fire seldom reaches Victoria: since 1986, 0.2% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.005% a year). In Health Canada’s survey, just 1.8% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Victoria a grade of C+; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Victoria’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Victoria: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Victoria faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Victoria: C+
Two inputs always count for Victoria, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #178 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,786 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 55 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Victoria has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0.2% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Victoria’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Low by Canadian standards: 0.005% of the land a year around Victoria, 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
The 5 km ring around Victoria’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 6.2 km out.
The forest starts beyond town: 4.1% of the land within 5 km of Victoria’s homes is forest fuel, against 63% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
Victoria burns at 0.005% a year, 121st of 255 towns in British Columbia; the leader, Oliver, reaches 0.98%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Victoria is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Victoria, from Capital Regional District: 1 on the inventory
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Victoria: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
A 2021 study by Capital Regional District covers Victoria, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Regional Coastal Flood Inundation Mapping Project | Capital Regional District | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in British Columbia: 76% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Victoria is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Victoria.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Victoria $0.66 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.66 per $1,000, Victoria carries roughly 21.8 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Victoria’s $0.66 tops the median in British Columbia, $0.36, though Duncan reaches $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 0.7% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Victoria.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Victoria’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Victoria: 1.8% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the South Vancouver Island health region
Radon runs below the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Victoria’s area, at 1.8%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Victoria’s area, at 1.8%, is close to the median in British Columbia (1.8%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Victoria, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Victoria as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Victoria
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Victoria; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Victoria, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Victoria’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | Low | $0.66 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Oak Bay 18,626 · 3.2 km | Low | $0.81 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Esquimalt 19,512 · 3.9 km | Low | $1.25 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Saanich 126,011 · 5.1 km | Low | $0.76 | 1.8% | Yes |
| New Songhees 1A 2,052 · 5.5 km | Low | $1.02 | 1.8% | Yes |
| View Royal 12,795 · 7.5 km | Low | $0.91 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Colwood 22,794 · 10 km | Low | $1.09 | 1.8% | Yes |
Colwood burns a little more than Victoria, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Victoria faces
What to do about the hazards Victoria faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Victoria without grading them.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Victoria’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Victoria’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Victoria until then.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Victoria
Does Victoria flood?
A flood study covers Victoria on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is Victoria’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Victoria grades C+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is Victoria at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.2% of the land within 25 km of Victoria has burned since 1986, the last in 2024, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
Is radon a problem in Victoria?
In Health Canada’s survey, 1.8% of 55 homes tested in Victoria’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Victoria?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Victoria’s buildings lose $0.66 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).