Photo: Keefer4~commonswiki · CC BY-SA 2.5Earthquake risk in Saanich runs 25 times the typical Canadian town’s: $0.76 per $1,000 a year
Wildfire is rare near Saanich: 0.2% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.005% a year. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 1.8% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Saanich grades C+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Saanich’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Saanich: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Saanich faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Saanich grades C+ for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Saanich with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #186 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,804 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 55 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Saanich: 0.1% within 5 km, 0.2% within 25 km
Past fire around Saanich’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
The land within 25 km of Saanich burns at 0.005% a year on average, the low band; the typical Canadian town: 0.000%.
There is forest near Saanich’s homes (34% within 5 km) and more of it further out (68% within 25 km).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
In the upper half in British Columbia but far from Oliver (0.98%): Saanich ranks 121st of 255, at 0.005% a year.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Low, like 92% of the country’s 2,610 towns: the land around Saanich burns, but slower than in the 7.5% above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Capital Regional District has mapped flooding for Saanich (1 study)
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Saanich: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The flood study touching Saanich is Capital Regional District’s, dated 2021; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Regional Coastal Flood Inundation Mapping Project | Capital Regional District | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Saanich is one of the 76% of towns in British Columbia with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Saanich’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Saanich’s costliest hazard: $0.76 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
At $0.76 per $1,000, Saanich carries roughly 25.3 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in British Columbia: Saanich’s $0.76 against a median of $0.36, with Duncan highest at $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few of Canada’s 2,611 towns face more earthquake damage than Saanich: 0.4% of them.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Saanich’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
1.8% of homes tested around Saanich are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
At 1.8% over the guideline, the area around Saanich is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Saanich, 1.8% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in British Columbia (1.8%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Saanich; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Saanich can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the South Vancouver Island health region
Weather and fire alerts for Saanich
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Saanich; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Saanich, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Saanich’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saanich | Low | $0.76 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Victoria 103,888 · 5.1 km | Low | $0.66 | 1.8% | Yes |
| New Songhees 1A 2,052 · 5.3 km | Low | $1.02 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Esquimalt 19,512 · 5.5 km | Low | $1.25 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Oak Bay 18,626 · 6.3 km | Low | $0.81 | 1.8% | Yes |
| View Royal 12,795 · 6.3 km | Low | $0.91 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Colwood 22,794 · 11 km | Low | $1.09 | 1.8% | Yes |
The fire record around Colwood is a touch heavier than Saanich’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Saanich faces
What to do about the hazards Saanich faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Saanich’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Saanich.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Saanich is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Saanich’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Saanich
How big is the earthquake risk in Saanich?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Saanich’s buildings lose $0.76 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
How is Saanich’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Saanich C+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Saanich?
In Health Canada’s survey, 1.8% of 55 homes tested in Saanich’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Saanich at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0.2% of the land within 25 km of Saanich has burned since 1986, the last in 2024, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
Does Saanich flood?
There is flood mapping for Saanich on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).