Photo: rpaterso · CC BY-SA 2.0Earthquake risk in Oak Bay runs 27 times the typical Canadian town’s: $0.81 per $1,000 a year
Fire seldom reaches Oak Bay: since 1986, 0.1% of the land within 25 km has burned (0.001% a year). In Health Canada’s survey, just 1.8% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Oak Bay a grade of C+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Oak Bay’s hazards
For Oak Bay, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Oak Bay faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Oak Bay grades C+ for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Oak Bay, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #189 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,807 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 55 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Oak Bay: 0% within 5 km, 0.1% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Oak Bay’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Oak Bay is 0.001%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Since 1986 the nearest fire to Oak Bay’s homes came within 9.6 km, never inside 5 km.
Forest thickens with distance from Oak Bay: 7.3% of the land within 5 km, 57% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
Oak Bay ranks 239th of the 255 towns in British Columbia for burn rate (0.001% a year), in the lower half; Oliver leads at 0.98%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Oak Bay, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Oak Bay is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Capital Regional District
Flood studies whose area touches Oak Bay, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Capital Regional District studied flooding in an area that includes Oak Bay (2021); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Regional Coastal Flood Inundation Mapping Project | Capital Regional District | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
76% of towns in British Columbia have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Oak Bay has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Oak Bay to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
High seismic risk in Oak Bay: $0.81 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
The typical town loses $0.030 a year to shaking; Oak Bay loses $0.81, 27 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in British Columbia expects $0.36 a year; Oak Bay expects $0.81, and Duncan $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 0.3% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Oak Bay.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Oak Bay is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Oak Bay: 1.8% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 1.8% over the guideline, the area around Oak Bay is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Oak Bay, 1.8% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in British Columbia (1.8%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Oak Bay is in the lowest band, with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns: under 5% of tests over the guideline, while 63% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Oak Bay’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests published for the South Vancouver Island health region, not by town
Where to get warnings in Oak Bay
Alerts for Oak Bay come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Oak Bay are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Oak Bay’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oak Bay | Low | $0.81 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Victoria 103,888 · 3.2 km | Low | $0.66 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Saanich 126,011 · 6.3 km | Low | $0.76 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Esquimalt 19,512 · 7.0 km | Low | $1.25 | 1.8% | Yes |
| New Songhees 1A 2,052 · 8.5 km | Low | $1.02 | 1.8% | Yes |
| View Royal 12,795 · 10 km | Low | $0.91 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Colwood 22,794 · 13 km | Low | $1.09 | 1.8% | Yes |
Colwood burns a little more than Oak Bay, in the same low band (low here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Oak Bay faces
What to do about the hazards Oak Bay faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For Oak Bay, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Oak Bay’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Oak Bay.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Oak Bay is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Oak Bay
Is Oak Bay at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0.1% of the land around Oak Bay since 1986 (last in 2016); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
Does Oak Bay flood?
There is flood mapping for Oak Bay on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
How is Oak Bay’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Oak Bay’s Hazard risk grade is C+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Oak Bay?
About $0.81 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Oak Bay.
Is radon a problem in Oak Bay?
Around Oak Bay, 55 survey homes were tested and 1.8% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).