Marin County Civic Center · Photo: Fizbin at en.wikipedia · Public domainFEMA puts San Rafael’s expected hazard damage per building above that of 96% of U.S. towns, led by earthquakes
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Rafael gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns, #646 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is earthquakes (41%), then river and rain flooding (39%). Flood insurance has paid 454 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about San Rafael’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What San Rafael faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Earthquakes
River and rain flooding
Coastal flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind San Rafael’s grade
Earthquakes are 41% of the building damage FEMA expects in San Rafael, and San Rafael’s rate of earthquakes damage is in the top 6% of U.S. census tracts. Coastal flooding adds 18%, at a rate in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #646 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns (21,298).
San Rafael’s residents live in 15 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, San Rafael has more expected damage per building than 76% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $61.5M a year in losses across San Rafael: $52.5M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does San Rafael flood? Yes: 454 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in San Rafael, from FEMA’s records: 19.0 per 1,000 homes, more than 83% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Pineapple Express - Southern50 claims · $1.1M
- The California Atmospheric River5 claims · $221K
- The Winter storm1 claim · $9K
San Rafael isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Marin County.7 federal disasters brought FEMA money to San Rafael
Disasters that paid out in San Rafael itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of San Rafael), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2023Severe Winter Storms, Straight-line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$79K to the City of San Rafael for repairs1 flood claim paid that year
- 2022Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$49K to the City of San Rafael for repairs4 flood claims paid that year
- 2019Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$58K to the City of San Rafael for repairs
- 2019Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$29K to the City of San Rafael for repairs
- 2017Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides$2.0M to the City of San Rafael for repairs6 flood claims paid that year
- 2006Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides$49K to the City of San Rafael for repairs4 flood claims paid that year
Show all 7
- 2005Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Landslides40 households applied for aid$65K aid approved$515K to the City of San Rafael for repairs28 flood claims paid that year
Marin County has had 22 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of San Rafael after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the San Rafael archive →San Rafael and its neighbors
San Rafael is 6th of the 9 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Valley-Marinwood | Dmore damage than 91% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Sleepy Hollow | Dmore damage than 92% | river and rain flooding | 64 |
| Kentfield | Dmore damage than 94% | river and rain flooding | 80 |
| Richmond | Dmore damage than 94% | earthquakes | 36 |
| Larkspur | D−more damage than 96% | river and rain flooding | 98 |
| San Rafael | D−more damage than 96% | earthquakes | 454 |
| San Anselmo | D−more damage than 98% | river and rain flooding | 230 |
| Ross | D−among the highest damage | river and rain flooding | 199 |
| Santa Venetia | D−among the highest damage | coastal flooding | 187 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what San Rafael faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Know your evacuation zone and the way off the coast.
- Storm surge comes fast: leave when you’re told, not when the water arrives.
- Move cars to high ground before king tides and nor’easters.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in San Rafael
Is San Rafael at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, San Rafael has higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #646 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is earthquakes (41%) and river and rain flooding (39%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does San Rafael flood?
Flood insurance has paid 454 claims in San Rafael since 1978, $6.8M in all, or 19.0 per 1,000 homes, more than 83% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 46 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Pineapple Express - Southern (50).
Is San Rafael in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Marin County, 38% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 5.4% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in San Rafael?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for San Rafael’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in San Rafael?
By FEMA money that reached San Rafael, Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides (2017): $2.0M to the City of San Rafael for repairs. By flood claims, Pineapple Express - Southern: 50 paid, $1.1M.
Is San Rafael at risk from earthquakes?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (41%), and San Rafael’s rate for it is in the top 6% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in San Rafael.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where San Rafael’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.