Dixie Schoolhouse · Photo: Sanfranman59 · CC BY-SA 3.0FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Lucas Valley-Marinwood than in 91% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lucas Valley-Marinwood gets a D for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 91% of U.S. towns, #350 of 847 in California. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%), then earthquakes (27%). Flood insurance has paid 3 claims here since 1982.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Lucas Valley-Marinwood faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Lucas Valley-Marinwood’s grade
River and rain flooding is 70% of the building damage FEMA expects in Lucas Valley-Marinwood, and Lucas Valley-Marinwood’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 8% of U.S. census tracts. Wildfire adds 2%, at a rate in the top 7% of U.S. census tracts.
D #350 of 847 in California; higher expected damage per building than 91% of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Lucas Valley-Marinwood’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
The typical California town has higher expected damage than 92% of U.S. towns; within the state, Lucas Valley-Marinwood has less expected damage per building than 59% of California towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $4.4M a year in losses across Lucas Valley-Marinwood: $4.2M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Lucas Valley-Marinwood flood? Rarely: 3 flood claims since 1982
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Lucas Valley-Marinwood, from FEMA’s records: 1.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 75% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Lucas Valley-Marinwood isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Marin County.The storms Lucas Valley-Marinwood remembers
None of the 22 disasters declared for Marin County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Lucas Valley-Marinwood itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
- 19821 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 20121 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 20171 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides, declared for Marin County
Marin County has had 22 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Lucas Valley-Marinwood after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Lucas Valley-Marinwood archive →Lucas Valley-Marinwood and its neighbors
Lucas Valley-Marinwood has the lowest expected damage per building of the 3 graded towns here. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Valley-Marinwood | Dmore damage than 91% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Novato | Dmore damage than 94% | river and rain flooding | 323 |
| San Rafael | D−more damage than 96% | earthquakes | 454 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Lucas Valley-Marinwood faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Lucas Valley-Marinwood
Is Lucas Valley-Marinwood at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Lucas Valley-Marinwood has higher expected damage per building than 91% of U.S. towns: D for hazard risk, #350 of 847 in California. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%) and earthquakes (27%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Lucas Valley-Marinwood flood?
Flood insurance has paid 3 claims in Lucas Valley-Marinwood since 1982, $22K in all, or 1.2 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 75% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is Lucas Valley-Marinwood in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Marin County, 38% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 5.4% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Lucas Valley-Marinwood?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Lucas Valley-Marinwood’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is Lucas Valley-Marinwood at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (70%), and Lucas Valley-Marinwood’s rate for it is in the top 8% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Lucas Valley-Marinwood.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Lucas Valley-Marinwood’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.