Photo: Mwanner · CC BY-SA 3.0More hazard damage per building is expected in Jay than in 81% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Jay gets a C− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 81% of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (94%). Flood insurance has paid 166 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Jay’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Jay faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Jay’s grade
River and rain flooding is 94% of the building damage FEMA expects in Jay, and Jay’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is in the top 10% of U.S. census tracts.
C− higher expected damage per building than 81% of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Jay’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.9M a year in losses across Jay: $1.2M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Jay flood? Yes: 166 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Jay, from FEMA’s records: 105.9 per 1,000 homes, more than 96% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- Hurricane Irene33 claims · $2.2M
Jay isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Essex County.5 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Jay
Disasters that paid out in Jay itself (aid to households or repair grants to the Town of Jay), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2017Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm$22K to the Town of Jay for repairs
- 2013Severe Storms and Flooding$528K to the Town of Jay for repairs
- 2011Hurricane Irene28 households applied for aid$126K aid approved$2.7M to the Town of Jay for repairs33 flood claims paid for it, $2.2M
- 2011Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-line Winds$294K to the Town of Jay for repairs
- 2007Severe Storms and Inland and Coastal Flooding$151K to the Town of Jay for repairs
Essex County has had 19 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees; the 2001 World Trade Center declarations.
Old photos of Jay after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Jay archive →Jay and its neighbors
Jay is 8th of the 8 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keene | C+more damage than 60% | river and rain flooding | 32 |
| Lewis | Cmore damage than 65% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Wilmington | Cmore damage than 67% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Chesterfield | Cmore damage than 68% | river and rain flooding | 8 |
| Black Brook | Cmore damage than 69% | river and rain flooding | 19 |
| Elizabethtown | Cmore damage than 71% | river and rain flooding | 26 |
| Au Sable | Cmore damage than 74% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Jay | C−more damage than 81% | river and rain flooding | 166 |
| Au Sable Forks | — | 369 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Jay faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Jay
Is Jay at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Jay has higher expected damage per building than 81% of U.S. towns: C− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (94%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Jay flood?
Flood insurance has paid 166 claims in Jay since 1978, $3.4M in all, or 105.9 per 1,000 homes, more than 96% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 13 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Hurricane Irene (33).
Is Jay in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Essex County, 0.7% of all homes carry federal flood insurance.
How much is flood insurance in Jay?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Jay’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Jay?
By FEMA money that reached Jay, Hurricane Irene (2011): 28 households applied for aid, $126K approved, and $2.7M to the Town of Jay for repairs. By flood claims, Hurricane Irene: 33 paid, $2.2M.
Is Jay at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (94%), and Jay’s rate for it is in the top 10% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Jay.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Jay’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.