Photo: Unknown author Unknown author · Public domainA flood study covers Welland: 11 on the national inventory, the newest from Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
For Welland, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk runs high: $0.069 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 2% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Welland a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Welland’s hazards
For Welland, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Welland faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Welland: B+
The grade weighs Welland’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #482 of 866 in Ontario and #933 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Welland: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Welland’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Next to the typical Canadian town (0.000% a year), Welland’s 0.000% is in the low band.
Only 1% of the land within 25 km of Welland is forest fuel, and 0.6% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Welland, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Like most of Canada’s 2,610 towns (92%), Welland is in the low band, with a burn rate of zero to three decimals; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
11 flood studies cover Welland, the newest from Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Welland, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Welland the inventory points to 11 studies, most recently Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority’s in 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coyle and Draper's Creeks | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2025 | final |
| Welland River | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
| Singers Drain | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2011 | final |
| Lyons Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2011 | final |
| BiedermanDrain | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | final | |
| CoyleCreek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | final | |
| DrapersCreek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | final | |
| IndianCreek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | final |
3 more studies on the inventory touch Welland.
Towns with a flood study on file
Welland is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The busiest decade for flood studies around Welland was the 2010s (3 of 4); they run from the 2010s to the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Welland.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Welland.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Welland’s costliest hazard: $0.069 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
The typical town loses $0.030 a year to shaking; Welland loses $0.069, 2.3 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Welland, at $0.069, sits above the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
In the upper part of Canada’s range: 28% of its 2,611 towns expect more damage than Welland.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Welland the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Welland: 2% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Welland’s survey area reads 2% over the guideline, under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Behind radon tests sits data gathered across the Niagara Regional Area Health Unit, with Welland one part of it.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Fewer homes top the guideline around Welland (2%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%), yet 2% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Welland, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Whatever Welland’s area share, the reading that matters is your own home’s, over a winter.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Welland
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Welland; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Welland, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Welland
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welland | Low | $0.069 | 2% | Yes |
| Pelham 19,980 · 6.6 km | Low | $0.055 | 2% | Yes |
| Port Colborne 21,921 · 11 km | Low | $0.066 | 2% | Yes |
| Thorold 33,844 · 13 km | Low | $0.061 | 2% | Yes |
| Wainfleet 7,329 · 14 km | Low | $0.060 | 2% | Yes |
| Niagara Falls 113,983 · 17 km | Low | $0.066 | 2% | Yes |
Nowhere around Welland burns more: Pelham, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Welland faces
What to do about the hazards Welland faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Welland without grading them.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Welland until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Welland.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Welland’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Welland
Does Welland flood?
A flood study covers Welland on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is Welland’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Welland grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is Welland at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Welland (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
How big is the earthquake risk in Welland?
About $0.069 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Welland.
Is radon a problem in Welland?
Around Welland, 100 survey homes were tested and 2% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).