Photo: Michael Pardo from Niagara, Canada · CC0Pelham is on Canada’s flood inventory: 11 listed, led by Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Pelham’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Pelham as in most places, at $0.055 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 2% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Hazard risk gives Pelham a grade of A−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Pelham’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Pelham: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Pelham faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Pelham: A−
Two inputs always count for Pelham, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #458 of 866 in Ontario and #894 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Pelham: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Pelham’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
With 0.000% burned a year, Pelham is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Pelham: forest fuel is 1% within 5 km and 0.8% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Pelham, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Pelham is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Pelham is on the flood map inventory: 11 studies, latest by Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Pelham, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The newest of 11 studies covering Pelham is Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority’s, from 2025; open its map to see the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coyle and Draper's Creeks | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2025 | final |
| Welland River | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
| Singers Drain | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2011 | final |
| Sixteen Mile Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2007 | final |
| Eighteen Mile Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2005 | final |
| Upper Twelve Mile Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2005 | final |
| BigForksCreek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | final | |
| CoyleCreek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | final |
3 more studies on the inventory touch Pelham.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Pelham is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Studies touching Pelham run from the 2000s to the 2020s, with the most in the 2000s: 3 of 6.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Pelham.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Pelham floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Pelham: $0.055 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.055 per $1,000, Pelham’s earthquake risk is about the typical Canadian town’s ($0.030; 1.8 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Pelham’s $0.055 tops the median in Ontario, $0.043, though Alexandria reaches $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
In the upper part of Canada’s range: 30% of its 2,611 towns expect more damage than Pelham.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Pelham’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Pelham: 2% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Niagara Regional Area Health Unit: radon tests
At 2% over the guideline, the area around Pelham is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Fewer homes top the guideline around Pelham (2%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%), yet 2% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Pelham is in the lowest band, with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns: under 5% of tests over the guideline, while 63% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Pelham as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Pelham
Alerts for Pelham come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Pelham are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Pelham
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pelham | Low | $0.055 | 2% | Yes |
| Welland 66,480 · 6.6 km | Low | $0.069 | 2% | Yes |
| Thorold 33,844 · 10 km | Low | $0.061 | 2% | Yes |
| Wainfleet 7,329 · 15 km | Low | $0.060 | 2% | Yes |
| St. Catharines 153,865 · 16 km | Low | $0.066 | 2% | Yes |
| Beamsville 28,356 · 17 km | Low | $0.058 | 2% | Yes |
| Niagara Falls 113,983 · 17 km | Low | $0.066 | 2% | Yes |
Pelham’s low band tops its neighbours; Welland is next (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Pelham faces
What to do about the hazards Pelham faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Pelham’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Pelham is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Pelham’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Pelham.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Pelham
How is Pelham’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Pelham’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Pelham?
In Health Canada’s survey, 2% of 100 homes tested in Pelham’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Pelham at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Pelham’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Pelham?
About $0.055 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Pelham.
Does Pelham flood?
There is flood mapping for Pelham on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).