Photo: Balcer · CC BY 2.5Wildfire low, radon 11%: how Shelburne stands on hazards
For Shelburne, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is about as much of a worry in Shelburne as in most places, at $0.019 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Hazard risk gives Shelburne a grade of B−, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Shelburne’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Shelburne: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Shelburne faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Shelburne grades B− for hazard risk
The grade weighs Shelburne’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #650 of 866 in Ontario and #1,585 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Shelburne has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Shelburne’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
A burn rate of 0.000% a year keeps Shelburne in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
15% of the land within 5 km of Shelburne is forest fuel, close to the 16% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Shelburne, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Shelburne sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Shelburne
Flood studies whose area touches Shelburne, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
NRCan’s inventory is silent on Shelburne, so any flood map would be the municipality’s own.
Towns with a flood study on file
Missing from a well-mapped province: Shelburne has no study, where 69% of towns in Ontario have one against 58% nationally.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Shelburne’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Ordinary seismic risk in Shelburne: $0.019 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shelburne’s $0.019 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (0.6 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Shelburne, at $0.019, is below the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 66% of its 2,611 towns sit above Shelburne.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Shelburne’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Shelburne: 11% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
At 11% over the guideline, the area around Shelburne beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Shelburne, 11% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 2% over 600, against a median of 4% in Ontario.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
4.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Shelburne, in the 10–20% band with 22%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Shelburne as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Shelburne
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Shelburne; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Shelburne come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Shelburne’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelburne | Low | $0.019 | 11% | None listed |
| Melancthon 3,581 · 10 km | Low | $0.018 | 11% | Yes |
| Amaranth 4,808 · 10 km | Low | $0.019 | 11% | Yes |
| Mulmur 3,813 · 16 km | Low | $0.011 | 11% | Yes |
| Mono 10,036 · 17 km | Low | $0.012 | 11% | Yes |
Among its neighbours Shelburne has the most fire on record (low); Melancthon follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Shelburne faces
What to do about the hazards Shelburne faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Shelburne floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Shelburne sits in.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Shelburne’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Shelburne’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Shelburne
How big is the earthquake risk in Shelburne?
About $0.019 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Shelburne.
Is radon a problem in Shelburne?
Around Shelburne, 99 survey homes were tested and 11% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Is Shelburne at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Shelburne since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Does Shelburne flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Shelburne’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
How is Shelburne’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Shelburne’s Hazard risk grade is B−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).