Photo: P199 · CC BY-SA 3.0Melancthon is on Canada’s flood inventory: 1 listed, led by Grand River Conservation Authority
Wildfire isn’t Melancthon’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Shaking is about as much of a worry in Melancthon as in most places, at $0.018 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, 11% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Melancthon a grade of B, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Melancthon’s hazards
For Melancthon, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Melancthon faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Melancthon: B
For Melancthon, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #641 of 866 in Ontario and #1,554 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Melancthon: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Melancthon’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Forty years of fire maps put Melancthon at 0.000% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Forest thickens with distance from Melancthon: 10% of the land within 5 km, 17% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
To three decimals the burn rate around Melancthon is zero, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, while Sioux Lookout reaches 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Melancthon shares the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, its burn rate rounding to nothing; 7.5% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Melancthon is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Grand River Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Melancthon, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Melancthon the inventory points to Grand River Conservation Authority’s 2018 study, whose map is the one to check.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand River Regulatory Floodplain | Grand River Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Melancthon is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Melancthon.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Melancthon: $0.018 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Earthquake losses in Melancthon, $0.018 per $1,000, are in line with the typical $0.030 (0.6 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.018, Melancthon is below the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria is highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
68% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Melancthon.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Melancthon the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Melancthon: 11% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Source area for radon tests: the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
Radon runs above the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Melancthon’s area, at 11%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Melancthon’s area, at 11%, is above the median in Ontario (4%), and 2% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
4.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Melancthon, in the 10–20% band with 22%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Melancthon doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Melancthon
Alerts for Melancthon come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Melancthon are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Melancthon
The same four hazards for the places next door.
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Melancthon (low); Shelburne comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Melancthon faces
Practical steps for Melancthon’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Melancthon’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Wildfire counts one way. For Melancthon, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Melancthon takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Melancthon.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Melancthon
Does Melancthon flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Melancthon; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How is Melancthon’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Melancthon B, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Melancthon?
11% of the 99 homes Health Canada tested around Melancthon topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How big is the earthquake risk in Melancthon?
Expected earthquake damage in Melancthon comes to $0.018 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Is Melancthon at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Melancthon since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).