Photo: Michael from Calgary, AB, Canada · CC BY 2.0Flood mapping exists for Mulmur: 1 on record, latest by Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority
Wildfire isn’t Mulmur’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.011 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. In Health Canada’s survey, 11% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Mulmur grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Mulmur’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Mulmur: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Mulmur faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Mulmur grades B+ for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Mulmur’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #601 of 866 in Ontario and #1,369 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Mulmur: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Mulmur’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
With 0.000% burned a year, Mulmur is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
The ring nearest Mulmur is the most wooded: 22% forest fuel within 5 km against 16% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Little or nothing burns around Mulmur in a typical year; 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario share that, and Sioux Lookout leads at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and Mulmur sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Mulmur is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Mulmur, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
A 2024 study by Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority covers Mulmur, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Mad River Flood Hazard Study | Nottawasaga Valley Conservation Authority | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Ontario reaches 69% of towns, Mulmur included, beside 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Mulmur.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Little shaking expected in Mulmur: $0.011 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Mulmur it is only $0.011, 0.4 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in Ontario expects $0.043 a year in shaking damage; Mulmur expects less, $0.011, and Alexandria the most, $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Mulmur is in the lower part of Canada’s range for earthquake risk; 85% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Mulmur’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Mulmur: 11% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit: radon tests
Mulmur’s area, at 11%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Mulmur (11%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%); 2% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Mulmur sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Mulmur can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Mulmur
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Mulmur; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Mulmur come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Mulmur
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mulmur | Low | $0.011 | 11% | Yes |
| Adjala-Tosorontio 11,948 · 10.0 km | Low | $0.017 | 0.9% | Yes |
| Shelburne 10,767 · 16 km | Low | $0.019 | 11% | None listed |
| Melancthon 3,581 · 19 km | Low | $0.018 | 11% | Yes |
Fire is no heavier anywhere nearby than around Mulmur (low), with Adjala-Tosorontio next at low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Mulmur faces
Practical steps for Mulmur’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Mulmur’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Mulmur.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Mulmur takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Mulmur’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Mulmur
How big is the earthquake risk in Mulmur?
Expected earthquake damage in Mulmur comes to $0.011 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
How is Mulmur’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Mulmur grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Does Mulmur flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Mulmur; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Is Mulmur at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Mulmur (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
Is radon a problem in Mulmur?
The area’s survey found 11% of 99 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Mulmur.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).