Photo: Jkentrandall · CC BY-SA 4.0Carlow/Mayo’s hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 12% of area homes over the radon guideline
For Carlow/Mayo, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Seismic risk in Carlow/Mayo sits near the middle: $0.027 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives Carlow/Mayo a grade of C+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Carlow/Mayo’s hazards
For Carlow/Mayo, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Carlow/Mayo faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Carlow/Mayo grades C+ for hazard risk
For Carlow/Mayo, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Carlow/Mayo: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Carlow/Mayo’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.000% of the land a year, Carlow/Mayo’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
The closest burn since 1986 lies 24 km from Carlow/Mayo’s homes, none within 5 km.
38% of the land within 5 km of Carlow/Mayo is forest fuel, close to the 36% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 872
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Carlow/Mayo, as around 639 of the 872 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Like most of Canada’s 2,610 towns (92%), Carlow/Mayo is in the low band, with a burn rate of zero to three decimals; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Carlow/Mayo
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Carlow/Mayo: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists no study whose area touches Carlow/Mayo, which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped.
Towns with a flood study on file
Missing from a well-mapped province: Carlow/Mayo has no study, where 69% of towns in Ontario have one against 58% nationally.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Carlow/Mayo floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Ordinary seismic risk in Carlow/Mayo: $0.027 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Earthquake losses in Carlow/Mayo, $0.027 per $1,000, are in line with the typical $0.030 (0.9 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk in Ontario peaks in Alexandria ($0.21); Carlow/Mayo, at $0.027, is below the median of $0.043.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Carlow/Mayo sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 53% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Carlow/Mayo is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Carlow/Mayo: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
At 12% over the guideline, the area around Carlow/Mayo beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Hastings and Prince Edward Counties Health Unit, Carlow/Mayo included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Carlow/Mayo’s area, at 12%, is above the median in Ontario (4%), and 2% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Carlow/Mayo is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Radon varies from house to house in Carlow/Mayo, so the survey is a reason to test, not a result for yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Carlow/Mayo
Alerts for Carlow/Mayo come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Carlow/Mayo are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Carlow/Mayo
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlow/Mayo | Low | $0.027 | 12% | None listed |
| Hastings Highlands 4,957 · 16 km | Low | $0.026 | 12% | None listed |
| Brudenell, Lyndoch and Raglan 1,656 · 17 km | Low | $0.036 | 8% | None listed |
| Bancroft 4,331 · 18 km | Low | $0.030 | 12% | None listed |
Among its neighbours Carlow/Mayo has the most fire on record (low); Hastings Highlands follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Carlow/Mayo faces
Practical steps for Carlow/Mayo’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Carlow/Mayo until then.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Carlow/Mayo without grading them.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Carlow/Mayo’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Carlow/Mayo.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Carlow/Mayo
How is Carlow/Mayo’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Carlow/Mayo C+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does Carlow/Mayo flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Carlow/Mayo (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Carlow/Mayo?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Carlow/Mayo’s buildings lose $0.027 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is Carlow/Mayo at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Carlow/Mayo’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2025), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in Carlow/Mayo?
12% of the 99 homes Health Canada tested around Carlow/Mayo topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).