Photo: Patrick Tomasso impatrickt · CC0Wildfire low, radon 12%: how Bancroft stands on hazards
Around Bancroft, wildfire is practically absent from the record: 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Earthquake risk in Bancroft is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.030 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. Bancroft grades C+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Bancroft’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Bancroft: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Bancroft faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Bancroft: C+
For Bancroft, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #812 of 866 in Ontario and #2,004 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Bancroft has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Bancroft’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Bancroft fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Bancroft: 29% within 5 km and 28% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Near-zero burning puts Bancroft with 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, far below Sioux Lookout at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Bancroft is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Bancroft
Flood studies whose area touches Bancroft, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
There is no study for Bancroft on the national flood inventory, which is far from complete.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario, 69% of towns against 58% nationally, but none in the inventory touches Bancroft.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Bancroft’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Bancroft $0.030 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
With $0.030 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Bancroft sits right at the typical $0.030.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: Bancroft’s $0.030 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Bancroft sits mid-range among Canada’s 2,611 towns: 48% expect more shaking damage.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Bancroft’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Bancroft: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
A higher share than most: 12% of tested homes around Bancroft, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Bancroft’s area, at 12%, is above the median in Ontario (4%), and 2% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
4.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than Bancroft, in the 10–20% band with 22%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Bancroft as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Hastings and Prince Edward Counties Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Bancroft
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Bancroft; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Bancroft, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Bancroft
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bancroft | Low | $0.030 | 12% | None listed |
| Faraday 1,820 · 11 km | Low | $0.030 | 12% | Yes |
| Hastings Highlands 4,957 · 13 km | Low | $0.026 | 12% | None listed |
| Carlow/Mayo 1,048 · 18 km | Low | $0.027 | 12% | None listed |
Fire is no heavier anywhere nearby than around Bancroft (low), with Faraday next at low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Bancroft faces
Practical steps for Bancroft’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Bancroft is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Bancroft’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Bancroft’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Bancroft.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Bancroft
How big is the earthquake risk in Bancroft?
About $0.030 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Bancroft.
Is Bancroft at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Bancroft: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Does Bancroft flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Bancroft, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
Is radon a problem in Bancroft?
The area’s survey found 12% of 99 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Bancroft.
How is Bancroft’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Bancroft’s Hazard risk grade is C+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).