Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainOn hazards, Southesk comes out behind 93% of Canadian towns
Wildfire is rare near Southesk: 1.5% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.04% a year. Shaking is a bigger worry than in most places, at $0.079 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, 29% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Southesk grades D for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Southesk’s hazards
For Southesk, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Southesk faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Southesk grades D for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Southesk’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Southesk: 1.8% within 5 km, 1.5% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Southesk’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
With 0.04% burned a year, Southesk is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Southesk: 90% within 5 km and 90% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 61
The land around Southesk burns at 0.04% a year, the 12th highest rate of 61 towns in New Brunswick; Tracadie tops it at 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Southesk, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB has mapped flooding for Southesk (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Southesk, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB holds the flood mapping that covers Southesk (2020), linked below.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
93% of towns in New Brunswick have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Southesk has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Southesk floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
High seismic risk in Southesk: $0.079 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Southesk’s $0.079 is about 2.6 times the typical town’s $0.030: it sits in one of Canada’s more active seismic zones.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in New Brunswick expects $0.036 a year; Southesk expects $0.079, and St. Stephen $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More earthquake risk than most: only 28% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are above Southesk.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Southesk is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Southesk: 29% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Region 7 health region
A higher share than most: 29% of tested homes around Southesk, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Southesk, 29% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 5% over 600, against a median of 20% in New Brunswick.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
One home in five or more tests over the guideline around Southesk; 3.1% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are in that band and 1.5% higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Whatever Southesk’s area share, the reading that matters is your own home’s, over a winter.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Southesk
Alerts for Southesk come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Southesk are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Southesk’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southesk | Low | $0.079 | 29% | Yes |
| Northesk 2,301 · 6.4 km | Moderate | $0.078 | 29% | Yes |
| Nelson 1,014 · 11 km | Low | $0.050 | 29% | Yes |
| Blackville 2,104 · 16 km | Low | $0.050 | 29% | Yes |
Fire is heaviest around Northesk (moderate), against low for Southesk.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Southesk faces
Practical steps for Southesk’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For Southesk, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Southesk’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Southesk sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Southesk floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Southesk
Is radon a problem in Southesk?
29% of the 200 homes Health Canada tested around Southesk topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Does Southesk flood?
Southesk’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Is Southesk at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Southesk’s band is low, with 1.5% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2025), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Southesk?
Expected earthquake damage in Southesk comes to $0.079 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
How is Southesk’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Southesk grades D for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).