Photo: Wm. Notman & Son · Public domainHigh radon around Blackville: 29% of homes tested in the area exceed 200 Bq/m³
Burn scars are few around Blackville, with 0.5% of the land within 25 km touched by fire since 1986 (0.01% a year). NRCan expects $0.050 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Blackville, near the typical $0.030. Hazard risk gives Blackville a grade of D, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Blackville’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Blackville: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Blackville faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Blackville grades D for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Blackville’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Blackville: 0.5% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0.6% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Blackville’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Blackville burns at 0.01% a year, low against 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Forest fuel is spread evenly around Blackville: 94% within 5 km, 93% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 61
Blackville sits mid-table in New Brunswick: 19th of 61 towns, at 0.01% a year, well behind Tracadie (0.28%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band takes in 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Blackville among them, though its rate is above zero; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Blackville is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB
Flood studies whose area touches Blackville, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
One study on the inventory touches Blackville, Service New Brunswick - GeoNB’s from 2020, and its area can be large, so it says a map exists, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
93% of towns in New Brunswick have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Blackville has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Blackville’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Blackville: $0.050 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Nothing unusual about Blackville’s ground: $0.050 against a typical $0.030, 1.7 times.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The typical town in New Brunswick expects $0.036 a year; Blackville expects $0.050, and St. Stephen $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
31% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Blackville, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Blackville’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Blackville: 29% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 29% over the guideline, the area around Blackville beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Region 7 health region, Blackville included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Blackville’s area, at 29%, is above the median in New Brunswick (20%), and 5% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Blackville is in the 20–30% band, which holds only 3.1% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 1.5% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Blackville only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Blackville
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Blackville; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Blackville come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Blackville
The same four hazards for the places next door.
The fire record around Nelson is a touch heavier than Blackville’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Blackville faces
Practical steps for Blackville’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Blackville until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Blackville’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Blackville’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Blackville without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Blackville
How is Blackville’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Blackville’s Hazard risk grade is D, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Blackville?
The area’s survey found 29% of 200 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Blackville.
How big is the earthquake risk in Blackville?
Expected earthquake damage in Blackville comes to $0.050 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Does Blackville flood?
A flood study covers Blackville on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is Blackville at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Blackville’s low band (0.5% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2020) is short of the level that counts.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).