Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainOn hazards, Northesk comes out behind 93% of Canadian towns
Wildfire is a moderate presence around Northesk: 2.2% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, 0.05% a year, short of the band that counts against Risk. Shaking is a bigger worry than in most places, at $0.078 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). More homes than usual carry radon here, 29% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Northesk grades D for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Northesk’s hazards
For Northesk, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Northesk faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Northesk: D
The grade weighs Northesk’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Fire reaches the land around Northesk: 0% within 5 km, 2.2% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Northesk’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.05% of the land a year, Northesk’s burn rate is moderate; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Forest fuel is spread evenly around Northesk: 91% within 5 km, 92% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 61
The land around Northesk burns at 0.05% a year, the 9th highest rate of 61 towns in New Brunswick; Tracadie tops it at 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Northesk is in the moderate band, which holds 5.4% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 2.1% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Northesk, from Service New Brunswick - GeoNB: 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Northesk, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
A 2020 study by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB covers Northesk, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
93% of towns in New Brunswick have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Northesk has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Northesk’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
High seismic risk in Northesk: $0.078 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.078 per $1,000, Northesk carries roughly 2.6 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in New Brunswick: Northesk’s $0.078 against a median of $0.036, with St. Stephen highest at $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
In the upper part of Canada’s range: 28% of its 2,611 towns expect more damage than Northesk.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Northesk is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Northesk: 29% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Region 7 health region
At 29% over the guideline, the area around Northesk beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Northesk than in most towns in New Brunswick: 29% over the guideline (20% is typical), 5% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few of Canada’s 2,611 towns (3.1%) share the 20–30% band with Northesk, and 1.5% sit above it.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Northesk can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Northesk
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Northesk; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Northesk, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Northesk’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
Among its neighbours Northesk has the most fire on record (moderate); Nelson follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Northesk faces
What to do about the hazards Northesk faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Northesk’s included.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Northesk.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Northesk takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Northesk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Northesk
Is radon a problem in Northesk?
In Health Canada’s survey, 29% of 200 homes tested in Northesk’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Northesk?
Expected earthquake damage in Northesk comes to $0.078 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
How is Northesk’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Northesk D, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is Northesk at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 2.2% of the land within 25 km of Northesk has burned since 1986, the last in 2025, a moderate band that leaves Risk alone.
Does Northesk flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Northesk; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).