Photo: ValerieWalking · CC BY-SA 2.0Radon is Newcastle’s main hazard: 29% of tested homes in its area top Health Canada’s guideline
Wildfire is a moderate presence around Newcastle: 2.7% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, 0.07% a year, short of the band that counts against Risk. NRCan expects $0.044 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Newcastle, near the typical $0.030. Newcastle grades D for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Newcastle’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Newcastle: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Newcastle faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Newcastle: D
Two inputs always count for Newcastle, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Some fire around Newcastle: 2.7% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Newcastle’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.07% of the land a year, Newcastle’s burn rate is moderate; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
The 5 km ring around Newcastle’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 5.4 km out.
93% of the land within 5 km of Newcastle is forest fuel, close to the 90% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 61
Newcastle ranks 7th of the 61 towns in New Brunswick for burn rate, at 0.07% a year; Tracadie leads with 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 5.4% of Canada’s 2,610 towns share the moderate band with Newcastle, and 2.1% sit above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB has mapped flooding for Newcastle (1 study)
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Newcastle: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
A 2020 study by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB covers Newcastle, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Newcastle is one of the 93% of towns in New Brunswick with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Newcastle.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Newcastle: $0.044 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
1.5 times the typical $0.030: Newcastle’s $0.044 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in New Brunswick is $0.036; Newcastle, at $0.044, is right beside it, and St. Stephen tops the list at $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
In the upper part of Canada’s range: 32% of its 2,611 towns expect more damage than Newcastle.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Newcastle’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
29% of homes tested around Newcastle are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Newcastle’s survey area reads 29% over the guideline, well past the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Newcastle than in most towns in New Brunswick: 29% over the guideline (20% is typical), 5% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few of Canada’s 2,611 towns (3.1%) share the 20–30% band with Newcastle, and 1.5% sit above it.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Newcastle can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Region 7 health region
Weather and fire alerts for Newcastle
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Newcastle; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Newcastle, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Newcastle’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | Moderate | $0.044 | 29% | Yes |
| Miramichi 19,402 · 13 km | Moderate | $0.041 | 29% | Yes |
Newcastle’s moderate band tops its neighbours; Miramichi is next (moderate).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Newcastle faces
What to do about the hazards Newcastle faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Newcastle is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Newcastle.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Newcastle’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Newcastle’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Newcastle
How is Newcastle’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Newcastle’s Hazard risk grade is D, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Newcastle?
Around Newcastle, 200 survey homes were tested and 29% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How big is the earthquake risk in Newcastle?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Newcastle’s buildings lose $0.044 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is Newcastle at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 2.7% of the land around Newcastle since 1986 (last in 2025); at moderate, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
Does Newcastle flood?
There is flood mapping for Newcastle on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).