Photo: Whitehea · CC BY-SA 4.0East St. Paul’s hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 12% of area homes over the radon guideline
Wildfire barely registers for East St. Paul, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.001% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.005 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. East St. Paul grades A− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about East St. Paul’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for East St. Paul: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What East St. Paul faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in East St. Paul: A−
For East St. Paul, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #9 of 185 in Manitoba and #879 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 66 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near East St. Paul: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where East St. Paul’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.001% of the land a year, East St. Paul’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Nothing inside 5 km of East St. Paul’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 6.3 km off.
Forest makes up 0% of the land within 5 km of East St. Paul and 0.1% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
East St. Paul ranks 31st of the 189 towns in Manitoba for burn rate, at 0.001% a year; Flin Flon (Part) leads with 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns burn fast enough to rank moderate or above; East St. Paul stays low, with 92%.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for East St. Paul
Flood studies whose area touches East St. Paul, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
NRCan’s inventory is silent on East St. Paul, so any flood map would be the municipality’s own.
Towns with a flood study on file
East St. Paul has no flood study on file; only 18% of towns in Manitoba do, against 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of East St. Paul’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in East St. Paul: $0.005 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.005 per $1,000, East St. Paul carries 0.2 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
East St. Paul’s $0.005 is close to the median in Manitoba, $0.006; Virden is highest at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
At the bottom of Canada’s range, East St. Paul has 96% of the 2,611 towns above it.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to East St. Paul’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
12% of homes tested around East St. Paul are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
the typical Canadian town has 6.6% over the guideline; East St. Paul’s area has 12%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Winnipeg health region, East St. Paul included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
East St. Paul’s area, at 12%, is close to the median in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
4.6% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have a higher share of homes over 200 Bq/m³ than East St. Paul, in the 10–20% band with 22%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in East St. Paul only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for East St. Paul
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for East St. Paul; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around East St. Paul, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How East St. Paul’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East St. Paul | Low | $0.005 | 12% | None listed |
| River East 7,774 · 4.4 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Springfield North 8,327 · 4.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| West St. Paul 10,796 · 5.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Valhalla 3,153 · 5.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Rivergrove 2,742 · 5.6 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Riverbend 5,453 · 5.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
River East (low) has the heaviest fire record of East St. Paul’s neighbours, and East St. Paul (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what East St. Paul faces
Practical steps for East St. Paul’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; East St. Paul’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for East St. Paul is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around East St. Paul’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for East St. Paul.
Questions about flooding and hazards in East St. Paul
How is East St. Paul’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
East St. Paul’s Hazard risk grade is A−, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is East St. Paul at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: East St. Paul’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2012), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in East St. Paul?
12% of the 66 homes Health Canada tested around East St. Paul topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How big is the earthquake risk in East St. Paul?
About $0.005 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for East St. Paul.
Does East St. Paul flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers East St. Paul (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).