Photo: Dig deeper · CC BY-SA 4.0Hazards in West St. Paul: wildfire low, radon over the guideline in 12% of tested homes
Wildfire barely registers for West St. Paul, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Seismic risk runs low: $0.006 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Hazard risk gives West St. Paul a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about West St. Paul’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for West St. Paul: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What West St. Paul faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
West St. Paul grades B+ for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for West St. Paul, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 66 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around West St. Paul has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around West St. Paul’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
At 0.000% of the land a year, West St. Paul’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
The 5 km ring around West St. Paul’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 9.9 km out.
Forest makes up 0% of the land within 5 km of West St. Paul and 0.1% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Near-zero burning puts West St. Paul with 60 of the 189 towns in Manitoba, far below Flin Flon (Part) at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band holds 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, and West St. Paul sits at its very bottom; only 7.5% are above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for West St. Paul
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for West St. Paul: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
NRCan’s inventory is silent on West St. Paul, so any flood map would be the municipality’s own.
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 18% of towns in Manitoba have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%, and West St. Paul is not among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for West St. Paul to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in West St. Paul: $0.006 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
West St. Paul’s $0.006 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
West St. Paul’s $0.006 is close to the median in Manitoba, $0.006; Virden is highest at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earthquakes cost less around West St. Paul than in 88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to West St. Paul’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in West St. Paul: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
At 12% over the guideline, the area around West St. Paul beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Figures for radon tests are published for the Winnipeg health region as a whole, not for West St. Paul alone.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around West St. Paul, 12% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The 10–20% band holds 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, West St. Paul among them; 4.6% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in West St. Paul only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for West St. Paul
Alerts for West St. Paul come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for West St. Paul come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How West St. Paul’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West St. Paul | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| East St. Paul 10,321 · 5.0 km | Low | $0.005 | 12% | None listed |
| Riverbend 5,453 · 6.5 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Rivergrove 2,742 · 6.7 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Valhalla 3,153 · 7.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| River East 7,774 · 7.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| West Kildonan Industrial 3,678 · 7.5 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
The fire record around East St. Paul is a touch heavier than West St. Paul’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what West St. Paul faces
What to do about the hazards West St. Paul faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for West St. Paul.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; West St. Paul’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for West St. Paul is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around West St. Paul’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
Questions about flooding and hazards in West St. Paul
Does West St. Paul flood?
Nothing is listed for West St. Paul on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in West St. Paul?
In NRCan’s seismic model, West St. Paul’s buildings lose $0.006 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is radon a problem in West St. Paul?
In Health Canada’s survey, 12% of 66 homes tested in West St. Paul’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is West St. Paul at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of West St. Paul has burned since 1986, the last in 2012, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How is West St. Paul’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
West St. Paul’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).