Caernarvon faces fewer hazards than 98% of Canadian towns
Fire has left almost no mark near Caernarvon: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.013 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, just 1.4% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Caernarvon grades A+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Caernarvon’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Caernarvon: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Caernarvon faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Caernarvon: A+
The grade weighs Caernarvon’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #11 of 474 in Alberta and #22 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Only 73 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Caernarvon has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Caernarvon’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Around Caernarvon fire takes 0.000% of the land in a typical year, the typical Canadian town 0.000%, which is low.
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Caernarvon: forest fuel is 0% within 5 km and 0.3% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
Of the 478 towns in Alberta, 386 have a burn rate that rounds to zero, Caernarvon among them; Wainwright leads at 1.43% a year.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Caernarvon shares the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, its burn rate rounding to nothing; 7.5% burn faster.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Caernarvon
Flood studies whose area touches Caernarvon, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists no study whose area touches Caernarvon, which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped.
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are thinner in Alberta, 46% of towns against 58% nationally, and Caernarvon has none.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Caernarvon floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in Caernarvon: $0.013 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Caernarvon’s $0.013 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.4 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Alberta is $0.013; Caernarvon, at $0.013, is right beside it, and Black Diamond tops the list at $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 75% of its 2,611 towns sit above Caernarvon.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Caernarvon’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Not measured by town: earthquake risk (the city of Edmonton)
Radon runs low around Caernarvon: 1.4% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
A lower share than most: 1.4% of tested homes around Caernarvon, the typical Canadian town 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Capital Health, Caernarvon included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
The median in Alberta is 7.5% over 200 Bq/m³; around Caernarvon it is 1.4%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Radon rarely tops the guideline around Caernarvon, as for 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% see more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Caernarvon as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Caernarvon
Alerts for Caernarvon come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Caernarvon come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Caernarvon’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caernarvon | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Carlisle 4,609 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Dunluce 6,079 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Oxford 4,460 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Cumberland 6,493 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Griesbach 6,640 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Hudson 3,634 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Caernarvon (low); Carlisle comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Caernarvon faces
What to do about the hazards Caernarvon faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Caernarvon without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Caernarvon’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Caernarvon’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Caernarvon until then.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Caernarvon
How is Caernarvon’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Caernarvon’s Hazard risk grade is A+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Caernarvon flood?
Nothing is listed for Caernarvon on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
Is Caernarvon at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Caernarvon’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Is radon a problem in Caernarvon?
In Health Canada’s survey, 1.4% of 73 homes tested in Caernarvon’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Caernarvon?
About $0.013 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Caernarvon.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).