Few places are as safe from hazards as Carlisle: it beats 98% of Canadian towns
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Carlisle, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Seismic risk runs low: $0.013 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Radon is lower than usual: 1.4% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Carlisle grades A+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Carlisle’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Carlisle: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Carlisle faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Carlisle grades A+ for hazard risk
The grade weighs Carlisle’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #11 of 474 in Alberta and #22 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 73 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Carlisle has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Carlisle’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Fire claims 0.000% of the land around Carlisle each year, a low band, with the typical Canadian town at 0.000%.
Forest makes up 0% of the land within 5 km of Carlisle and 0.3% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Alberta · highest of 478
Among the 478 towns in Alberta, Wainwright burns fastest (1.43% a year); Carlisle is with the 386 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Carlisle is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Carlisle
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Carlisle: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
No flood study on the national inventory covers Carlisle; ask the municipality, which is the authority for its flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
Only 46% of towns in Alberta have a flood study, short of Canada’s 58%, and Carlisle is not among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Carlisle.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Carlisle just $0.013 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Carlisle’s $0.013 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.4 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Carlisle doesn’t get its own earthquake risk figures; the ones here come from the city of Edmonton.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Alberta is $0.013; Carlisle, at $0.013, is right beside it, and Black Diamond tops the list at $0.048.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 75% of its 2,611 towns sit above Carlisle.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Carlisle’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Carlisle: 1.4% of area homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
A lower share than most: 1.4% of tested homes around Carlisle, the typical Canadian town 6.6%. For radon tests, the only official count covers all of the Capital Health, Carlisle included.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs lower around Carlisle than in most towns in Alberta: 1.4% against 7.5%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Carlisle; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Carlisle can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Carlisle
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Carlisle; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Carlisle, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Carlisle’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Kensington 3,697 · 1.0 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Caernarvon 5,972 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Calder 4,221 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Hudson 3,634 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Griesbach 6,640 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
| Rosslyn 3,242 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.013 | 1.4% | None listed |
Among its neighbours Carlisle has the most fire on record (low); Kensington follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Carlisle faces
What to do about the hazards Carlisle faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Carlisle’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Carlisle floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Carlisle sits in.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Carlisle’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Carlisle
How is Carlisle’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Carlisle’s Hazard risk grade is A+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Does Carlisle flood?
Nothing is listed for Carlisle on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Carlisle?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Carlisle $0.013 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Is radon a problem in Carlisle?
In Health Canada’s survey, 1.4% of 73 homes tested in Carlisle’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Carlisle at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Carlisle (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).