Photo: Don Ramey Logan · CC BY 4.0On FEMA’s figures, few U.S. towns expect more hazard damage per building than Trabuco Canyon, mostly from wildfire
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Trabuco Canyon gets a D− for hazard risk: among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns. Most of that expected damage is wildfire (72%), then river and rain flooding (17%). FEMA’s files show no paid flood insurance claims here.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Trabuco Canyon faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Wildfire
River and rain flooding
Earthquakes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Trabuco Canyon’s grade
Wildfire is 72% of the building damage FEMA expects in Trabuco Canyon, and Trabuco Canyon’s rate of wildfire damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Landslides add 4%, at a rate in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
D− among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns (21,298).
Trabuco Canyon’s residents live in 5 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $2.3M a year in losses across Trabuco Canyon: $1.9M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Trabuco Canyon flood? No paid flood claims on record
FEMA’s records show no paid flood insurance claims in Trabuco Canyon. That’s not a promise: most homes don’t carry flood insurance, so small floods go unrecorded.
Trabuco Canyon isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Orange County.2 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Trabuco Canyon
Disasters that paid out in Trabuco Canyon itself (aid to households or repair grants to Trabuco Canyon), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2017Wildfires15 households applied for aid$500 aid approved
- 2004Severe Storms, Flooding, Debris Flows, and Mudslides3 households applied for aid$3K aid approved
Orange County has had 27 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often severe storms, then floods. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 11 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Orange County, 2002–2022.
Old photos of Trabuco Canyon after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Trabuco Canyon archive →Trabuco Canyon and its neighbors
Trabuco Canyon is 3rd of the 3 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Forest | Dmore damage than 88% | river and rain flooding | 7 |
| Rancho Santa Margarita | Dmore damage than 90% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Trabuco Canyon | D−among the highest damage | wildfire | 0 |
| Modjeska | — | 714 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Trabuco Canyon faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Clear dead leaves and brush within 5 feet of the house.
- Sign up for local alerts and know two ways out.
- Keep N95 masks for smoky days.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap tall furniture and the water heater to the wall.
- Know how to shut off the gas.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Trabuco Canyon
Is Trabuco Canyon at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Trabuco Canyon has among the highest expected damage per building of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk. Most of the expected damage is wildfire (72%) and river and rain flooding (17%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Is Trabuco Canyon in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Orange County, 19% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.0% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Trabuco Canyon?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Trabuco Canyon’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Trabuco Canyon?
By FEMA money that reached Trabuco Canyon, Severe Storms, Flooding, Debris Flows, and Mudslides (2004): 3 households applied for aid, $3K approved.
Is Trabuco Canyon at risk from wildfire?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (72%), and Trabuco Canyon’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Trabuco Canyon.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Trabuco Canyon’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.