Photo: Ser Amantio di Nicolao · CC BY-SA 4.0FEMA puts South Run’s expected hazard damage per building below that of 76% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, South Run gets an A− for hazard risk: lower expected damage per building than 76% of U.S. towns, #152 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (87%). Flood insurance has paid 2 claims here since 2006.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What South Run faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Hurricanes
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind South Run’s grade
River and rain flooding is 87% of the building damage FEMA expects in South Run, and South Run’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 50% of U.S. census tracts. Next is hurricanes at 7% (higher than 70% of U.S. census tracts).
A− #152 of 253 in Virginia; lower expected damage per building than 76% of U.S. towns (21,298).
South Run’s residents live in 2 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, South Run has more expected damage per building than 60% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.7M a year in losses across South Run: $1.5M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does South Run flood? Rarely: 2 flood claims since 2006
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in South Run, from FEMA’s records: 1.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 78% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
South Run isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Fairfax County.The storms South Run remembers
None of the 16 disasters declared for Fairfax County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching South Run itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
- 20061 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared for Fairfax County
- 20181 flood claims paidThe year of Hurricane Florence, declared for Fairfax County
Fairfax County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of South Run after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the South Run archive →South Run and its neighbors
South Run is 3rd of the 4 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newington Forest | A−less damage than 81% | river and rain flooding | 8 |
| Burke | A−less damage than 80% | river and rain flooding | 12 |
| South Run | A−less damage than 76% | river and rain flooding | 2 |
| Crosspointe | B+less damage than 73% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what South Run faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in South Run
Is South Run at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, South Run has lower expected damage per building than 76% of U.S. towns: A− for hazard risk, #152 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (87%) and hurricanes (7%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does South Run flood?
Flood insurance has paid 2 claims in South Run since 2006, $8K in all, or 1.0 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 78% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
Is South Run in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Fairfax County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in South Run?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for South Run’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
Is South Run at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (87%), and South Run’s rate for it is higher than 50% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in South Run.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where South Run’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.