Manassas National Battlefield Park · Photo: Billy Hathorn · CC BY 3.0More hazard damage per building is expected in Bull Run than in 71% of U.S. towns, mostly from river and rain flooding
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Bull Run gets a C for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 71% of U.S. towns, #238 of 253 in Virginia. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (92%). Flood insurance has paid 3 claims here since 2008.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What Bull Run faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Bull Run’s grade
River and rain flooding is 92% of the building damage FEMA expects in Bull Run, and Bull Run’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 85% of U.S. census tracts.
C #238 of 253 in Virginia; higher expected damage per building than 71% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Bull Run’s residents live in 3 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Virginia town has lower expected damage than 81% of U.S. towns; within the state, Bull Run has more expected damage per building than 94% of Virginia towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $3.5M a year in losses across Bull Run: $3.2M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Bull Run flood? Rarely: 3 flood claims since 2008
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Bull Run, from FEMA’s records: 1.3 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 73% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Mid-spring storms1 claim · $4K
Bull Run isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Fairfax County.The storms Bull Run remembers
None of the 16 disasters declared for Fairfax County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Bull Run itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
- 20081 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 20141 flood claims paidNo declaration for the county that year
- 20181 flood claims paidThe year of Hurricane Florence, declared for Fairfax County
Fairfax County has had 16 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often winter storms, then hurricanes and tropical storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Old photos of Bull Run after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Bull Run archive →Bull Run and its neighbors
Bull Run is 5th of the 6 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chantilly | Bless damage than 60% | river and rain flooding | 4 |
| Centreville | B−less damage than 54% | river and rain flooding | 12 |
| Sudley | B−more damage than 52% | river and rain flooding | 5 |
| Yorkshire | Cmore damage than 66% | river and rain flooding | 39 |
| Bull Run | Cmore damage than 71% | river and rain flooding | 3 |
| Loch Lomond | Dmore damage than 86% | river and rain flooding | 44 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Bull Run faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Bull Run
Is Bull Run at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Bull Run has higher expected damage per building than 71% of U.S. towns: C for hazard risk, #238 of 253 in Virginia. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (92%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Bull Run flood?
Flood insurance has paid 3 claims in Bull Run since 2008, $18K in all, or 1.3 per 1,000 homes, fewer than 73% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from Mid-spring storms (1).
Is Bull Run in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Fairfax County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 1.1% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Bull Run?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Bull Run’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Bull Run?
By flood claims, Mid-spring storms: 1 paid, $4K.
Is Bull Run at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (92%), and Bull Run’s rate for it is higher than 85% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Bull Run.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Bull Run’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.