Nathan Bedford Forrest Boyhood Home · Photo: rossograph · CC BY-SA 4.0Chapel Hill gets more rain and snow than 93% of U.S. towns: 55 inches of precipitation a year
On a normal January night the air cools to about 29°. Winter and summer sit 61° apart. In July, afternoons here are warmer than in 75% of U.S. towns. Keep the boiler serviced for the months from November to February, which average under 50°.
A year in Chapel Hill at a glance
Each month’s typical high and low, and what it brings.
What stands out about Chapel Hill’s climate
Compared with towns across the U.S., with Chapel Hill’s place in Tennessee beside it.
What a year in Chapel Hill feels like
Typical highs and lows by season and by month, from NOAA’s 30-year normals.
About 192 frost-free days a year
In half of years the last 32° night comes by April 14 and the first by October 25. Frost and day counts come from NOAA’s station at Christiana 5w, TN, 13 miles from the town’s center, at about the same height.
The 2023 USDA map puts Chapel Hill’s center in zone 7b: the coldest night of a typical winter, averaged over 1991–2020, reaches about 6°. Plant labels use the zone; frost dates tell you when to plant.
Freezing nights by month
Average nights at or below 32°
90° days by month
Average days at 90° or more
About 1 inches of snow a winter
Snow, measured at Shelbyville Water Dept, TN, falls mostly in March. Precipitation (rain plus melted snow) adds up to 55 inches a year; March is the wettest month and October the driest. Rain or snow falls on about 128 days a year.
Rain + melted snow by month
Inches of water
Snowfall by month
Inches of snow
Heating and cooling a home in Chapel Hill
76% of the work is heating. Months averaging under 55° run from November through March.
Degree days add up how far each day’s average falls below (heating) or rises above (cooling) 65° over a year. NOAA normals at Christiana 5w, TN.
Living with Chapel Hill’s climate
What the numbers mean for a garden, a free afternoon and a bad-weather day.
192 frost-free days in zone 7b. The last frost comes by Apr 14 in half of years, so many gardeners wait a week or two past that to set out tomatoes. The first fall frost comes by Oct 25.
Months with highs of 62–84° and lows of 40° or more: April, May, September and October. 0.0 miles of trails are waiting.
Parks & trails →Of the yearly building losses FEMA expects in Chapel Hill from natural hazards, river flooding is the largest share (49%); heat waves, cold waves, winter storms and ice storms together are 17%. Normals are averages; the hazards page covers the extremes.
Natural hazards →Chapel Hill and similar climates
TownRatings has no climate map of the towns around Chapel Hill yet.
Climates most like Chapel Hill’s, farther away
TownRatings’ own comparison of NOAA 1991–2020 normals, not a NOAA product: places of 5,000+ at least 150 miles away, one per state, closest on January low, July high, precipitation and snow.
| Town | Jan. low | July high | Precip. | Snow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapel Hill, TN | 29° | 90° | 55" | 1.1" |
| Osceola, AR | 31° | 91° | 53" | 1.8" |
| Canton, GA | 31° | 88° | 54" | 1.3" |
| Seneca, SC | 32° | 89° | 54" | 2.2" |
| Holly Springs, MS | 31° | 90° | 58" | 2.3" |
Temperatures and precipitation come from NOAA’s 5 km grid; snow and day counts from the stations named on this page.
Warmer than it used to be
The last 30 years in Chapel Hill averaged 0.8° warmer than the 1900s. The biggest change is in February (+1.6°).
A smaller shift than in 91% of U.S. towns.
Change by month
The two periods overlap (1991–2000 is in both), which makes the gap a little smaller than it would be between separate periods.
How Chapel Hill compares
Against 12,954 U.S. towns of 2,500 or more (one per 5 km climate cell), with Chapel Hill’s place among Tennessee’s.
Chapel Hill weather by month
Highs, lows and precipitation from NOAA’s grid at Chapel Hill’s center; snow, wet days and snow on the ground from Shelbyville Water Dept, TN. 1991–2020 normals.
| Month | High | Low | Rain + melt | Snow | Wet days | Snow on ground | 30-yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 49° | 29° | 4.6" | 0.1" | 12 | 0 | 30° – 46° |
| February | 53° | 31° | 5.1" | 0.2" | 12 | 0 | 32° – 51° |
| March | 62° | 38° | 5.4" | 0.7" | 12 | 0 | 43° – 60° |
| April | 72° | 46° | 5.0" | 0.0" | 11 | 0 | 53° – 64° |
| May | 79° | 55° | 4.8" | 0.0" | 12 | 0 | 62° – 73° |
| June | 87° | 64° | 4.5" | 0.0" | 11 | 0 | 71° – 80° |
| July | 90° | 67° | 4.5" | 0.0" | 11 | 0 | 74° – 82° |
| August | 89° | 65° | 3.9" | 0.0" | 9 | 0 | 72° – 84° |
| September | 84° | 58° | 4.0" | 0.0" | 8 | 0 | 67° – 78° |
| October | 73° | 47° | 3.7" | 0.0" | 8 | 0 | 57° – 65° |
| November | 61° | 37° | 3.9" | 0.0" | 10 | 0 | 43° – 54° |
| December | 52° | 31° | 5.4" | 0.1" | 12 | 0 | 31° – 52° |
| Year | 71° | 47° | 54.5" | 1.1" | 128 | 1 |
How much a month can swing
A normal is an average. December swings the most: from 1991 to 2020 its average ranged from 31° to 52°. July is the most reliable, staying within 8°.
Where Chapel Hill’s numbers come from
Normals are 30-year averages, not a forecast. How TownRatings reads climate data →
- Temperatures and precipitation: NOAA’s gridded 1991–2020 normals for the 5 km cell at Chapel Hill’s center.
- Snow: Shelbyville Water Dept, TN.
- Frost, freezing nights, 90° and 100° days, heating and cooling: Christiana 5w, TN, 13 miles from the town’s center, at about the same height; the nearest station that passes our checks for distance, height and agreement with the grid.
- Growing zone: USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map, 2023. USDA Agricultural Research Service and PRISM Group, Oregon State University, prism.oregonstate.edu/phzm, accessed 8 Oct 2026.
- Then and now: NOAA’s gridded normals for 1901–2000 at the same cell.
- Storms and extremes: FEMA National Risk Index (expected annual losses to buildings).
Common questions about Chapel Hill’s climate
What is the weather like in Chapel Hill?
A typical July afternoon reaches 90°, a January night drops to 29°, and about 1 inches of snow falls in a normal winter. Milder January nights than 71% of U.S. towns; hotter July afternoons than 75% of U.S. towns.
How cold does it get in Chapel Hill in winter?
January nights average 29°. About 92 nights a year reach 32° or below. In the coldest January of the last 30 years the month averaged 30°.
How much snow does Chapel Hill get?
About 1.1 inches in a normal winter at Shelbyville Water Dept, TN, most of it in March, with snow on the ground about 1 days a year.
How hot does it get in Chapel Hill?
July, with a typical high of 90° and a low of 67°. About 31 days a year reach 90° and 1 reach 100° (Christiana 5w, TN).
When is the first and last frost in Chapel Hill?
In half of years the last spring frost (32°) comes by April 14 and the first fall frost by October 25, about 192 frost-free days, at Christiana 5w, TN.
What growing zone is Chapel Hill in?
Zone 7b on the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map: the coldest night of a typical winter reaches about 6°.
What is the best time of year to visit Chapel Hill?
By one simple rule (highs of 62–84° and lows of 40° or more), April, May, September and October. The rule is ours, not NOAA’s; the month table has the numbers to judge by.
Is Chapel Hill getting warmer?
Yes: 1991–2020 averaged 0.8° warmer than 1901–2000 on NOAA’s grid. A smaller shift than 91% of U.S. towns.
Neighbors talk weather
Gardens, snow, and the best days of the year in Chapel Hill.
Source: NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991–2020 and 1901–2000; USDA/PRISM 2023 hardiness zones; FEMA National Risk Index. Today’s forecast: National Weather Service.