Photo: Iulus Ascanius at English Wikipedia · Public domainAfton’s building-damage rate from strong wind is in the top 3% of U.S. census tracts
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Afton gets a B− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 52% of U.S. towns, #164 of 274 in Minnesota. Most of that expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%), then tornadoes (14%). Flood insurance has paid 27 claims here since 1978.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Afton’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Afton faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
River and rain flooding
Tornadoes
Strong wind
Hail
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Afton’s grade
River and rain flooding is 70% of the building damage FEMA expects in Afton, and Afton’s rate of river and rain flooding damage is higher than 58% of U.S. census tracts. Tornadoes add 14%, at a rate in the top 10% of U.S. census tracts.
B− #164 of 274 in Minnesota; higher expected damage per building than 52% of U.S. towns (21,298).
All of Afton’s residents live in one census tract; the figures are that tract’s.
The typical Minnesota town has lower expected damage than 57% of U.S. towns; within the state, Afton has more expected damage per building than 60% of Minnesota towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $1.5M a year in losses across Afton: $1.1M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Afton flood? Sometimes: 27 flood claims since 1978
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Afton, from FEMA’s records: 21.7 per 1,000 homes, more than 85% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- The Severe flooding9 claims · $154K
- The Midwest Flooding1 claim · $2K
Afton isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Washington County.3 federal disasters brought FEMA money to Afton
Disasters that paid out in Afton itself (aid to households or repair grants to the City of Afton), newest first, with that year’s flood claims.
- 2019Severe Winter Storm, Straight-line Winds, and Flooding$21K to the City of Afton for repairs
- 2011Severe Storms and Flooding$15K to the City of Afton for repairs
- 2001Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes$228K to the City of Afton for repairs10 flood claims paid that year
Washington County has had 13 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often floods, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 1 FEMA wildfire suppression grant (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Washington County, 2000–2000.
Old photos of Afton after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Afton archive →Afton and its neighbors
Afton is 5th of the 7 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Woodbury | B+less damage than 74% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| Troy | Bless damage than 63% | river and rain flooding | 1 |
| West Lakeland Township | B−less damage than 54% | river and rain flooding | — |
| Denmark Township | B−more damage than 52% | river and rain flooding | 49 |
| Afton | B−more damage than 52% | river and rain flooding | 27 |
| Lake St. Croix Beach | C−more damage than 77% | river and rain flooding | 36 |
| Lakeland | C−more damage than 77% | river and rain flooding | 72 |
| St. Marys Point | — | 483 residents; we grade 1,000+ | |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Afton faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Pick your spot now: the lowest floor, an inside room, no windows.
- A watch means be ready; a warning means take cover now.
- Keep shoes and a flashlight by the bed.
- Trim dead limbs over the house and driveway.
- Tie down trash cans and outdoor furniture.
- Stay clear of downed lines and call the utility.
- Park in a garage or under cover when storms are forecast.
- Stay away from windows while it falls.
- Photograph roof and car damage for your insurer.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Afton
Is Afton at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Afton has higher expected damage per building than 52% of U.S. towns: B− for hazard risk, #164 of 274 in Minnesota. Most of the expected damage is river and rain flooding (70%) and tornadoes (14%). The figures are for the one census tract the town shares with its neighbors. This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Afton flood?
Flood insurance has paid 27 claims in Afton since 1978, $307K in all, or 21.7 per 1,000 homes, more than 85% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. 7 properties have flooded more than once. The most claims came from Severe flooding (9).
Is Afton in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Washington County, 22% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 0.3% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Afton?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Afton’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Afton?
By FEMA money that reached Afton, Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes (2001): $228K to the City of Afton for repairs. By flood claims, Severe flooding: 9 paid, $154K.
Is Afton at risk from river and rain flooding?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (70%), and Afton’s rate for it is higher than 58% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Afton.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Afton’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.