Ida May · Photo: Linda Roy Walls · CC BY-SA 3.0No extremes in Chance: its weather tracks the middle of U.S. towns
High summer brings afternoon highs near 88°. Winters are mild: January nights here are milder than in 71% of U.S. towns. The latest 30-year average runs 1.8° warmer than 1901–2000’s, with December up the most. Garden planting can start around April 8; autumn frost returns near November 4.
A year in Chance at a glance
Each month’s typical high and low, and what it brings.
What stands out about Chance’s climate
Compared with towns across the U.S., with Chance’s place in Maryland beside it.
What a year in Chance feels like
Typical highs and lows by season and by month, from NOAA’s 30-year normals.
About 209 frost-free days a year
In half of years the last 32° night comes by April 8 and the first by November 4. Frost and day counts come from NOAA’s station at Vienna, MD, 22 miles from the town’s center, at about the same height.
The 2023 USDA map puts Chance’s center in zone 8a: the coldest night of a typical winter, averaged over 1991–2020, reaches about 13°. Plant labels use the zone; frost dates tell you when to plant.
Freezing nights by month
Average nights at or below 32°
90° days by month
Average days at 90° or more
About 45 inches of rain a year
August is the wettest month and February the driest.
Rain + melted snow by month
Inches of water
Heating and cooling a home in Chance
72% of the work is heating. Months averaging under 55° run from November through March.
Degree days add up how far each day’s average falls below (heating) or rises above (cooling) 65° over a year. NOAA normals at Vienna, MD.
Living with Chance’s climate
What the numbers mean for a garden, a free afternoon and a bad-weather day.
209 frost-free days in zone 8a. The last frost comes by Apr 8 in half of years, so many gardeners wait a week or two past that to set out tomatoes. The first fall frost comes by Nov 4.
Months with highs of 62–84° and lows of 40° or more: April, May, June, September and October. 0.0 miles of trails are waiting.
Parks & trails →Of the yearly building losses FEMA expects in Chance from natural hazards, coastal flooding is the largest share (61%); heat waves, cold waves, winter storms and ice storms together are 4%. Normals are averages; the hazards page covers the extremes.
Natural hazards →Chance and similar climates
TownRatings has no climate map of the towns around Chance yet.
Temperatures and precipitation come from NOAA’s 5 km grid; snow and day counts from the stations named on this page.
Warmer than it used to be
The last 30 years in Chance averaged 1.8° warmer than the 1900s. The biggest change is in December (+2.7°).
A bigger shift than in 77% of U.S. towns.
Change by month
The two periods overlap (1991–2000 is in both), which makes the gap a little smaller than it would be between separate periods.
How Chance compares
Against 12,954 U.S. towns of 2,500 or more (one per 5 km climate cell), with Chance’s place among Maryland’s.
Chance weather by month
Highs, lows and precipitation from NOAA’s grid at Chance’s center. 1991–2020 normals.
| Month | High | Low | Rain + melt | 30-yr range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 46° | 29° | 3.3" | 31° – 44° |
| February | 48° | 30° | 2.8" | 28° – 46° |
| March | 55° | 37° | 4.0" | 41° – 55° |
| April | 66° | 46° | 3.4" | 52° – 62° |
| May | 75° | 56° | 3.6" | 60° – 71° |
| June | 83° | 65° | 4.1" | 69° – 79° |
| July | 88° | 71° | 4.5" | 75° – 83° |
| August | 86° | 68° | 4.7" | 74° – 81° |
| September | 80° | 62° | 4.0" | 68° – 77° |
| October | 70° | 51° | 3.9" | 56° – 67° |
| November | 58° | 40° | 3.1" | 44° – 54° |
| December | 50° | 33° | 3.6" | 32° – 52° |
| Year | 67° | 49° | 45.0" |
How much a month can swing
A normal is an average. December swings the most: from 1991 to 2020 its average ranged from 32° to 52°. August is the most reliable, staying within 7°.
Where Chance’s numbers come from
Normals are 30-year averages, not a forecast. How TownRatings reads climate data →
- Temperatures and precipitation: NOAA’s gridded 1991–2020 normals for the 5 km cell at Chance’s center.
- Frost, freezing nights, 90° and 100° days, heating and cooling: Vienna, MD, 22 miles from the town’s center, at about the same height; the nearest station that passes our checks for distance, height and agreement with the grid.
- Growing zone: USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map, 2023. USDA Agricultural Research Service and PRISM Group, Oregon State University, prism.oregonstate.edu/phzm, accessed 8 Oct 2026.
- Then and now: NOAA’s gridded normals for 1901–2000 at the same cell.
- Storms and extremes: FEMA National Risk Index (expected annual losses to buildings).
Common questions about Chance’s climate
What is the weather like in Chance?
A typical July afternoon reaches 88°, a January night drops to 29°. Milder January nights than 71% of U.S. towns; hotter July afternoons than 68% of U.S. towns.
How cold does it get in Chance in winter?
January nights average 29°. About 83 nights a year reach 32° or below. In the coldest January of the last 30 years the month averaged 31°.
How hot does it get in Chance?
July, with a typical high of 88° and a low of 71°. About 43 days a year reach 90° (Vienna, MD).
When is the first and last frost in Chance?
In half of years the last spring frost (32°) comes by April 8 and the first fall frost by November 4, about 209 frost-free days, at Vienna, MD.
What growing zone is Chance in?
Zone 8a on the 2023 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map: the coldest night of a typical winter reaches about 13°.
What is the best time of year to visit Chance?
By one simple rule (highs of 62–84° and lows of 40° or more), April, May, June, September and October. The rule is ours, not NOAA’s; the month table has the numbers to judge by.
Is Chance getting warmer?
Yes: 1991–2020 averaged 1.8° warmer than 1901–2000 on NOAA’s grid. A bigger shift than 77% of U.S. towns.
Neighbors talk weather
Gardens, snow, and the best days of the year in Chance.
Source: NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991–2020 and 1901–2000; USDA/PRISM 2023 hardiness zones; FEMA National Risk Index. Today’s forecast: National Weather Service.