FEMA expects more hazard damage per building in Upper Grand Lagoon than in 96% of U.S. towns, mostly from hurricanes
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Upper Grand Lagoon gets a D− for hazard risk: higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns, #586 of 638 in Florida. Most of that expected damage is hurricanes (84%), then river and rain flooding (10%). Flood insurance has paid 280 claims here since 1984.
Graded on FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value (NRI v1.20, December 2025), weighted by where residents live; flood claims are shown, not graded. How hazard risk is graded
What stands out about Upper Grand Lagoon’s natural hazards
From FEMA’s model and FEMA’s records, below.
What Upper Grand Lagoon faces
Each hazard’s share of the building damage FEMA expects here, and how its rate compares with the rest of the country.
Hurricanes
River and rain flooding
Shares are of FEMA’s expected building damage, the measure the grade uses; ranks compare each hazard’s building-damage rate with all 85,154 U.S. census tracts. In FEMA’s terms, river and rain flooding is FEMA’s “Inland Flooding” (rivers and streams overflowing their banks, or rain overwhelming drainage). FEMA defines coastal flooding as high or rising tides and storm surge, so surge damage is counted there. Drought isn’t listed: FEMA counts its losses in crops only.
What’s behind Upper Grand Lagoon’s grade
Hurricanes are 84% of the building damage FEMA expects in Upper Grand Lagoon, and Upper Grand Lagoon’s rate of hurricanes damage is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts. Coastal flooding adds 3%, at a rate in the top 2% of U.S. census tracts.
D− #586 of 638 in Florida; higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns (21,298).
Upper Grand Lagoon’s residents live in 3 census tracts; FEMA’s figures are combined by where they live.
The typical Florida town has higher expected damage than 79% of U.S. towns; within the state, Upper Grand Lagoon has more expected damage per building than 92% of Florida towns.
In dollars, FEMA expects about $14.9M a year in losses across Upper Grand Lagoon: $12.7M to buildings, the rest to people and crops.
Does Upper Grand Lagoon flood? Yes: 280 flood claims since 1984
Every paid claim on a federal flood insurance policy in Upper Grand Lagoon, from FEMA’s records: 29.8 per 1,000 homes, more than 88% of the 13,809 U.S. towns with a flood insurance record.
- Hurricane Opal124 claims · $5.3M
- Hurricane Sally30 claims · $920K
- Hurricane Michael24 claims · $522K
Upper Grand Lagoon isn’t in FEMA’s Community Rating System, which cuts flood insurance up to 45% in towns that do extra flood-proofing.
Insurance rates: Bay County.The storms Upper Grand Lagoon remembers
None of the 36 disasters declared for Bay County shows FEMA aid or repair money reaching Upper Grand Lagoon itself in FEMA’s records, so these are its biggest flood-claim years.
- 1995124 flood claims paidThe year of Hurricane Opal, declared for Bay County
- 202034 flood claims paidThe year of Hurricane Sally, declared for Bay County
- 201326 flood claims paidThe year of Severe Storms and Flooding, declared for Bay County
Bay County has had 36 natural disasters declared by the President since 1953, most often hurricanes and tropical storms, then severe storms. Not counted: the 2005 Hurricane Katrina evacuee emergency, which covered counties that took in evacuees.
Also 3 FEMA wildfire suppression grants (Fire Management Assistance, not a disaster declaration) for fires in Bay County, 1999–2022.
Old photos of Upper Grand Lagoon after a storm or flood belong in the town’s history. Add one, or share what you remember below.
Add to the Upper Grand Lagoon archive →Upper Grand Lagoon and its neighbors
Upper Grand Lagoon is 2nd of the 2 graded towns here, from least expected damage per building to most. Tap a town to see its hazards.
| Town | Hazard risk | Mostly (buildings) | Flood claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Grand Lagoon | D−more damage than 95% | hurricanes | 322 |
| Upper Grand Lagoon | D−more damage than 96% | hurricanes | 280 |
Hazard risk = FEMA’s expected yearly building damage per dollar of building value, vs. the 21,298 U.S. towns we grade; the map is shaded by fifths of the same scale. Flood claims = paid federal flood insurance claims on record.
Get ready for what Upper Grand Lagoon faces
A short kit for the hazards that drive the building damage here, what to check before you buy, and where neighbors get alerts.
- The season runs June through November and peaks from mid-August to mid-October.
- Bring in porch furniture and anything the wind can throw.
- Fill the gas tank and charge phones before the storm arrives.
- Turn around at flooded roads: a foot of moving water can carry off a car.
- Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to start, so buy it before the forecast.
- Keep papers and medicines up high, in a grab-and-go bag.
- Look up the address on FEMA’s flood map.
- Ask the seller or landlord whether it has ever flooded, and what flood insurance costs there.
- Get a flood insurance quote early: policies usually start 30 days after you buy.
Know where neighbors sign up for alerts? Add it to the Handbook so everyone has it.
Questions about natural hazards in Upper Grand Lagoon
Is Upper Grand Lagoon at risk for natural disasters?
On FEMA’s National Risk Index, Upper Grand Lagoon has higher expected damage per building than 96% of U.S. towns: D− for hazard risk, #586 of 638 in Florida. Most of the expected damage is hurricanes (84%) and river and rain flooding (10%). This is FEMA’s model of an average year for today’s buildings, not a forecast.
Does Upper Grand Lagoon flood?
Flood insurance has paid 280 claims in Upper Grand Lagoon since 1984, $9.5M in all, or 29.8 per 1,000 homes, more than 88% of U.S. towns with a flood insurance record. The most claims came from Hurricane Opal (124).
Is Upper Grand Lagoon in a flood zone?
Flood zones are drawn street by street, so the answer depends on the address: look it up on FEMA’s flood map. In Bay County, 67% of homes in mapped flood zones carry federal flood insurance, and 17.9% of all homes do.
How much is flood insurance in Upper Grand Lagoon?
FEMA’s Community Rating System list shows no discount for Upper Grand Lagoon’s flood program. Premiums depend on the building; policies usually start 30 days after you buy, so get a quote early.
What was the biggest storm in Upper Grand Lagoon?
By flood claims, Hurricane Opal: 124 paid, $5.3M.
Is Upper Grand Lagoon at risk from hurricanes?
It is the largest share of the building damage FEMA expects here (84%), and Upper Grand Lagoon’s rate for it is in the top 1% of U.S. census tracts.
Storm stories
Memories, warnings and help from neighbors in Upper Grand Lagoon.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 (December 2025), census-tract table, combined by where Upper Grand Lagoon’s residents lived in the 2020 census; OpenFEMA: NFIP redacted claims, multiple-loss properties, community status book and residential penetration rates, housing assistance (owners and renters), public assistance funded projects, hazard mitigation properties and disaster declarations. Homes: Census ACS 2020–24. Preparedness tips: Ready.gov. FEMA’s model is an average of expected damage, not a forecast. How hazard risk is graded.