Photo: Nick3501 · CC BY-SA 3.0Few places are as safe from hazards as Tay: it beats almost every Canadian town
For Tay, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.011 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Radon is lower than usual: 0.9% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Tay grades A+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Tay’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Tay: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Tay faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Tay: A+
Two inputs always count for Tay, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #3 of 866 in Ontario and #12 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Tay: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Tay’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.000% of the land a year, Tay’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Forest fuel covers 9.5% of the land close to Tay and 22% across 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
To three decimals the burn rate around Tay is zero, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, while Sioux Lookout reaches 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Tay is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Tay
Flood studies whose area touches Tay, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
NRCan’s inventory is silent on Tay, so any flood map would be the municipality’s own.
Towns with a flood study on file
Tay has no flood study on file, though 69% of towns in Ontario do (Canada: 58%).
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Tay to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Tay: $0.011 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.4 times the typical $0.030: Tay’s $0.011 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Tay’s $0.011 sits under the median in Ontario, $0.043, and well under Alexandria’s $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earthquakes cost less around Tay than in 85% of Canada’s 2,611 towns.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Tay’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
0.9% of homes tested around Tay are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
Fewer homes than usual test high around Tay: 0.9% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Tay’s area, at 0.9%, is below the median in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The quietest radon band, under 5%, holds 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns and Tay; 63% sit higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Tay as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Tay
Alerts for Tay come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Tay are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Tay’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tay | Low | $0.011 | 0.9% | None listed |
| Midland 19,305 · 8.9 km | Low | $0.010 | 0.9% | None listed |
| Penetanguishene 11,141 · 13 km | Low | $0.011 | 0.9% | None listed |
| Tiny 14,195 · 18 km | Low | $0.014 | 0.9% | None listed |
Nowhere around Tay burns more: Midland, the closest rival, is low to its low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Tay faces
What to do about the hazards Tay faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Tay.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Tay’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Tay’s.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Tay is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Tay
How big is the earthquake risk in Tay?
About $0.011 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Tay.
Is Tay at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Tay (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
Is radon a problem in Tay?
Around Tay, 109 survey homes were tested and 0.9% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How is Tay’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Tay A+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does Tay flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Tay’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).