Photo: Gogerr · CC BY-SA 4.0A flood study covers Port Elgin: 2 on the national inventory, the newest from Town of Saugeen Shores
Fire has left almost no mark near Port Elgin: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.012 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). In Health Canada’s survey, 11% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Port Elgin a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Port Elgin’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Port Elgin: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Port Elgin faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Port Elgin grades B+ for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Port Elgin’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #605 of 866 in Ontario and #1,387 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Port Elgin has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Port Elgin’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low: the land around Port Elgin burns at 0.000% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
8% of the land within 5 km of Port Elgin is forest fuel, close to the 7.6% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Near-zero burning puts Port Elgin with 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario, far below Sioux Lookout at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Like most of Canada’s 2,610 towns (92%), Port Elgin is in the low band, with a burn rate of zero to three decimals; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
2 flood studies cover Port Elgin, the newest from Town of Saugeen Shores
Flood studies whose area touches Port Elgin, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Port Elgin the inventory points to 2 studies, most recently Town of Saugeen Shores’s in 2025.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saugeen Shores - Southampton, ON | Town of Saugeen Shores | 2025 | under review |
| Southampton Flood Hazard Mapping | Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Port Elgin is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Port Elgin’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in Port Elgin: $0.012 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Port Elgin it is only $0.012, 0.4 times as much.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: Port Elgin’s $0.012 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Port Elgin is in the lower part of Canada’s range for earthquake risk; 84% of the 2,611 towns are higher.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Port Elgin’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
11% of homes tested around Port Elgin are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Radon runs above the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Port Elgin’s area, at 11%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Port Elgin (11%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%); 1% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
One test in ten or more tops the guideline around Port Elgin, as in 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 4.6% go higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Port Elgin can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Data for radon tests covers the Grey Bruce Health Unit
Weather and fire alerts for Port Elgin
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Port Elgin; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Port Elgin come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Get ready for what Port Elgin faces
Practical steps for Port Elgin’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Port Elgin’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Port Elgin takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Port Elgin.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Port Elgin’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Port Elgin
How big is the earthquake risk in Port Elgin?
About $0.012 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Port Elgin.
Is radon a problem in Port Elgin?
The area’s survey found 11% of 98 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Port Elgin.
How is Port Elgin’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Port Elgin’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Port Elgin at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Port Elgin’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Port Elgin flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Port Elgin; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).