Photo: Municipal Affairs and Housing · CC BY 2.0Flood mapping exists for Orangeville: 3 on record, latest by Credit Valley Conservation Authority
The burned-area map is nearly blank around Orangeville, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.012 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Radon is higher than usual: 11% of tested homes in the survey area topped the guideline, against 6.6% for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Orangeville a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Orangeville’s hazards
For Orangeville, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Orangeville faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Orangeville grades B+ for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Orangeville with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #603 of 866 in Ontario and #1,382 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Orangeville: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Past fire around Orangeville’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
In a typical year 0.000% of the land near Orangeville burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Orangeville: 18% within 5 km and 16% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Fire has taken almost none of the land around Orangeville, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops the list at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Orangeville is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Orangeville is mapped in 3 studies, the newest by Credit Valley Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Orangeville: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The newest of 3 studies covering Orangeville is Credit Valley Conservation Authority’s, from 2017; open its map to see the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mill Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2017 | final · not public |
| Credit River | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2007 | final · not public |
| Shaw's Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2007 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in Ontario: 69% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Orangeville is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Mapping around Orangeville began in the 2000s; the 2000s saw the most work (2 of 3 studies), the latest in the 2010s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Orangeville.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Orangeville floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Low seismic risk in Orangeville: $0.012 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Orangeville’s $0.012 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.4 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.012, Orangeville is below the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria is highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
84% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Orangeville.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Orangeville.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Orangeville: 11% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Orangeville’s survey area reads 11% over the guideline, well past the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%. Nobody publishes radon tests for Orangeville alone, so this card uses the figure for the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Orangeville (11%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%); 2% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Orangeville is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Radon varies from house to house in Orangeville, so the survey is a reason to test, not a result for yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Orangeville
Alerts for Orangeville come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Orangeville are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Orangeville
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orangeville | Low | $0.012 | 11% | Yes |
| Mono 10,036 · 6.9 km | Low | $0.012 | 11% | Yes |
| East Garafraxa 2,976 · 11 km | Low | $0.018 | 11% | Yes |
| Amaranth 4,808 · 11 km | Low | $0.019 | 11% | Yes |
| Grand Valley 4,759 · 17 km | Low | $0.019 | 11% | Yes |
| Erin 12,924 · 17 km | Low | $0.018 | 11% | Yes |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Orangeville (low); Mono comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Orangeville faces
What to do about the hazards Orangeville faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Orangeville is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Orangeville.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Orangeville.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Orangeville’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Orangeville
Does Orangeville flood?
There is flood mapping for Orangeville on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Is Orangeville at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Orangeville’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
How is Orangeville’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Orangeville’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is radon a problem in Orangeville?
In Health Canada’s survey, 11% of 99 homes tested in Orangeville’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Orangeville?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Orangeville’s buildings lose $0.012 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).