Photo: Ken Lund from Reno, Nevada, USA · CC BY-SA 2.0Flood mapping exists for East Garafraxa: 3 on record, latest by Grand River Conservation Authority
The burned-area map is nearly blank around East Garafraxa, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is about as much of a worry in East Garafraxa as in most places, at $0.018 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). More homes than usual carry radon here, 11% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. East Garafraxa grades B for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about East Garafraxa’s hazards
For East Garafraxa, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What East Garafraxa faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in East Garafraxa: B
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like East Garafraxa with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #641 of 866 in Ontario and #1,554 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near East Garafraxa: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around East Garafraxa’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Low by Canadian standards: 0.000% of the land a year around East Garafraxa, 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
15% of the land within 5 km of East Garafraxa is forest fuel, close to the 15% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Fire has taken almost none of the land around East Garafraxa, as for 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario; Sioux Lookout tops the list at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Like most of Canada’s 2,610 towns (92%), East Garafraxa is in the low band, with a burn rate of zero to three decimals; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
East Garafraxa is on the flood map inventory: 3 studies, latest by Grand River Conservation Authority
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for East Garafraxa: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
3 studies on the inventory touch East Garafraxa, the newest Grand River Conservation Authority’s from 2018, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand River Regulatory Floodplain | Grand River Conservation Authority | 2018 | final |
| Mill Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2017 | final · not public |
| Shaw's Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2007 | final · not public |
Towns with a flood study on file
East Garafraxa is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The studies touching East Garafraxa lean recent: 2 of 3 date from the 2010s, the first from the 2000s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching East Garafraxa.
Flood mapping is shown for East Garafraxa to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in East Garafraxa $0.018 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
East Garafraxa’s $0.018 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (0.6 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.018, East Garafraxa is below the typical town in Ontario ($0.043); Alexandria is highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 68% of its 2,611 towns sit above East Garafraxa.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for East Garafraxa.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in East Garafraxa: 11% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
More homes than usual test high around East Garafraxa: 11% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
East Garafraxa’s area, at 11%, is above the median in Ontario (4%), and 2% of its tests passed 600 Bq/m³.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The 10–20% band holds 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, East Garafraxa among them; 4.6% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Radon varies from house to house in East Garafraxa, so the survey is a reason to test, not a result for yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Radon tests: one figure for all of the Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
Where to get warnings in East Garafraxa
Alerts for East Garafraxa come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near East Garafraxa are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around East Garafraxa
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Garafraxa | Low | $0.018 | 11% | Yes |
| Grand Valley 4,759 · 10.0 km | Low | $0.019 | 11% | Yes |
| Orangeville 33,070 · 11 km | Low | $0.012 | 11% | Yes |
| Erin 12,924 · 15 km | Low | $0.018 | 11% | Yes |
| Amaranth 4,808 · 15 km | Low | $0.019 | 11% | Yes |
| Mono 10,036 · 18 km | Low | $0.012 | 11% | Yes |
East Garafraxa’s low band tops its neighbours; Grand Valley is next (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what East Garafraxa faces
What to do about the hazards East Garafraxa faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. For East Garafraxa, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for East Garafraxa without grading them.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around East Garafraxa until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for East Garafraxa’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
Questions about flooding and hazards in East Garafraxa
How big is the earthquake risk in East Garafraxa?
In NRCan’s seismic model, East Garafraxa’s buildings lose $0.018 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Does East Garafraxa flood?
A flood study covers East Garafraxa on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
How is East Garafraxa’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
East Garafraxa’s Hazard risk grade is B, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is East Garafraxa at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of East Garafraxa since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Is radon a problem in East Garafraxa?
In Health Canada’s survey, 11% of 99 homes tested in East Garafraxa’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).