Photo: Municipal Affairs and Housing · CC BY 2.0Oakville is on Canada’s flood inventory: 9 listed, led by Conservation Halton
Wildfire isn’t Oakville’s worry: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (0.000% a year). NRCan expects $0.045 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Oakville, near the typical $0.030. In Health Canada’s survey, just 4.1% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Hazard risk gives Oakville a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Oakville’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Oakville: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Oakville faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Oakville: B+
Seismic risk and radon set Oakville’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #488 of 866 in Ontario and #1,090 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Oakville: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Oakville’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.000% of the land a year, Oakville’s burn rate is in the low band; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Only 1.9% of the land within 25 km of Oakville is forest fuel, and 0.5% close in.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Sioux Lookout has the highest burn rate in Ontario, 0.16% a year; around Oakville, as around 638 of the 871 towns, it rounds to zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 7.5% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are above the low band, which holds 92%; Oakville, at a rounded zero, is far from them.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Oakville is mapped in 9 studies, the newest by Conservation Halton
Flood studies whose area touches Oakville, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
The newest of 9 studies covering Oakville is Conservation Halton’s, from 2020; open its map to see the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halton Shoreline Flood Hazard | Conservation Halton | 2020 | final · not public |
| Floodplain Mapping Loyalist Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2020 | final · not public |
| Avonhead Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Clearview Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Lornewood Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Turtle Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2019 | final · not public |
| Lakeside Creek | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2018 | final · not public |
| Lake Ontario Shoreline | Credit Valley Conservation Authority | 2005 | final · not public |
1 more studies on the inventory touch Oakville.
Towns with a flood study on file
69% of towns in Ontario have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Oakville has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The busiest decade for flood studies around Oakville was the 2010s (5 of 9); they run from the 2000s to the 2020s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Oakville.
Flood mapping is shown for Oakville to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Oakville: $0.045 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Oakville’s $0.045 is close to the typical town’s $0.030 (1.5 times as much).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Oakville’s $0.045 is close to the median in Ontario, $0.043; Alexandria is highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More earthquake risk than most: only 32% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are above Oakville.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Oakville’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Little radon around Oakville: 4.1% of area homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Halton Regional Health Unit: radon tests
At 4.1% over the guideline, the area around Oakville is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Oakville, 4.1% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in Ontario (4%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Few tests over the guideline: Oakville shares the bottom band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, below the other 63%.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Oakville; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Oakville
Alerts for Oakville come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Oakville are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Oakville
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakville | Low | $0.045 | 4.1% | Yes |
| Erin Mills 39,194 · 9.1 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Sheridan 15,775 · 9.5 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| South Common 4,867 · 9.6 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Clarkson - Lorne Park 39,523 · 10 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Churchill Meadows 48,872 · 11 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
| Central Erin Mills 36,393 · 12 km | Low | $0.040 | 0% | Yes |
Fire is no heavier anywhere nearby than around Oakville (low), with Erin Mills next at low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Oakville faces
Practical steps for Oakville’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Oakville until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Oakville’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Oakville without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Oakville’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Oakville
Is Oakville at risk of wildfire?
No meaningful wildfire history near Oakville: 0% of nearby land since 1986, band low.
Is radon a problem in Oakville?
4.1% of the 97 homes Health Canada tested around Oakville topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How is Oakville’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Oakville grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Oakville?
Expected earthquake damage in Oakville comes to $0.045 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Does Oakville flood?
A flood study covers Oakville on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).