Photo: DimiTalen · CC0A flood study covers Niagara-on-the-Lake: 3 on the national inventory, the newest from Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Niagara-on-the-Lake, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.000% a year). Seismic risk runs high: $0.062 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Fewer homes than usual carry radon here, 2% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Niagara-on-the-Lake grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Niagara-on-the-Lake’s hazards
For Niagara-on-the-Lake, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Niagara-on-the-Lake faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Niagara-on-the-Lake grades B+ for hazard risk
For Niagara-on-the-Lake, Risk will be the average of earthquakes and radon, with wildfire added only if it makes the average worse.
Its place: #471 of 866 in Ontario and #915 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Little of the land around Niagara-on-the-Lake has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Niagara-on-the-Lake’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Low: the land around Niagara-on-the-Lake burns at 0.000% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Around Niagara-on-the-Lake the forest is thin or far off: 1.3% of the land within 5 km and 1.1% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Niagara-on-the-Lake is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Niagara-on-the-Lake is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Niagara-on-the-Lake is on the flood map inventory: 3 studies, latest by Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Niagara-on-the-Lake, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
3 studies on the inventory touch Niagara-on-the-Lake, the newest Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority’s from 2008, and their areas can be large, so they say maps exist, not that the town floods.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara-On-The-Lake | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 2008 | final |
| City of St. Catherines | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 1995 | final |
| One Mile Creek | Niagara Peninsula Conservation Authority | 1978 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Niagara-on-the-Lake is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
No single decade dominates: 3 studies for Niagara-on-the-Lake between the 1970s and the 2000s.
Study dates as the NRCan inventory lists them, one count per study touching Niagara-on-the-Lake.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Niagara-on-the-Lake floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Niagara-on-the-Lake $0.062 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Niagara-on-the-Lake’s $0.062 is about 2.1 times the typical town’s $0.030: it sits in one of Canada’s more active seismic zones.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Above the middle in Ontario: Niagara-on-the-Lake’s $0.062 against a median of $0.043, with Alexandria highest at $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
29% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Niagara-on-the-Lake, which places it in the upper third.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Niagara-on-the-Lake is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs low around Niagara-on-the-Lake: 2% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
At 2% over the guideline, the area around Niagara-on-the-Lake is under the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Fewer homes top the guideline around Niagara-on-the-Lake (2%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%), yet 2% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Niagara-on-the-Lake with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Niagara-on-the-Lake can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Data for radon tests covers the Niagara Regional Area Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Niagara-on-the-Lake
Alerts for Niagara-on-the-Lake come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Niagara-on-the-Lake come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Niagara-on-the-Lake
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | Low | $0.062 | 2% | Yes |
| St. Catharines 153,865 · 11 km | Low | $0.066 | 2% | Yes |
| Niagara Falls 113,983 · 14 km | Low | $0.066 | 2% | Yes |
| Thorold 33,844 · 15 km | Low | $0.061 | 2% | Yes |
Niagara-on-the-Lake’s low band tops its neighbours; St. Catharines is next (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Niagara-on-the-Lake faces
Practical steps for Niagara-on-the-Lake’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Niagara-on-the-Lake takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Niagara-on-the-Lake.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Niagara-on-the-Lake.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Niagara-on-the-Lake’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Niagara-on-the-Lake
How big is the earthquake risk in Niagara-on-the-Lake?
About $0.062 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Niagara-on-the-Lake.
Is Niagara-on-the-Lake at risk of wildfire?
The burned-area record shows next to nothing around Niagara-on-the-Lake (0% within 25 km since 1986), so its band is low.
Does Niagara-on-the-Lake flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Niagara-on-the-Lake; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
How is Niagara-on-the-Lake’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Niagara-on-the-Lake grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Is radon a problem in Niagara-on-the-Lake?
2% of the 100 homes Health Canada tested around Niagara-on-the-Lake topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).