Photo: Tudor Costache · CC BY-SA 3.0Central Elgin is on Canada’s flood inventory: 2 listed, led by Kettle Creek Conservation Authority
For Central Elgin, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.000% a year. Shaking is about as much of a worry in Central Elgin as in most places, at $0.020 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). About as many homes carry radon around Central Elgin as elsewhere, 7.5% over the guideline where the typical town has 6.6%. Central Elgin grades B+ for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Central Elgin’s hazards
For Central Elgin, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Central Elgin faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Central Elgin: B+
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Central Elgin with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #460 of 866 in Ontario and #898 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Central Elgin: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Central Elgin’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Next to the typical Canadian town (0.000% a year), Central Elgin’s 0.000% is in the low band.
Around Central Elgin the forest is thin or far off: 0.5% of the land within 5 km and 0.6% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Among the 871 towns in Ontario, Sioux Lookout burns fastest (0.16% a year); Central Elgin is with the 638 near zero.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are in the low band and 7.5% above it; Central Elgin is among the many where the yearly burn rate rounds to zero.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Flooding around Central Elgin is mapped in 2 studies, the newest by Kettle Creek Conservation Authority
Flood studies whose area touches Central Elgin, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Central Elgin the inventory points to 2 studies, most recently Kettle Creek Conservation Authority’s in 2024.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodd Creek Enhanced Riverine Floodplain Mapping | Kettle Creek Conservation Authority | 2024 | final |
| Catfish Creek floodplain and Port Bruce beach | Catfish Creek Conservation Authority | 2024 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Central Elgin is one of the 69% of towns in Ontario with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Central Elgin.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Expected shaking damage in Central Elgin: $0.020 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
With $0.020 of shaking damage a year per $1,000, Central Elgin is about even with the typical $0.030 (0.7 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: Central Elgin’s $0.020 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Central Elgin (64%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
For Central Elgin the model prices shaking damage to buildings, nothing more.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around Central Elgin: 7.5% over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Central Elgin’s area, at 7.5%, is close to the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Central Elgin, 7.5% of tests were over 200 Bq/m³ and 1.1% over 600, against a median of 4% in Ontario.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Central Elgin is in the 5–10% band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Central Elgin doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit
Where to get warnings in Central Elgin
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Central Elgin; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Central Elgin, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Central Elgin
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Elgin | Low | $0.020 | 7.5% | Yes |
| St. Thomas 49,388 · 2.0 km | Low | $0.023 | 7.5% | Yes |
| Aylmer 8,371 · 14 km | Low | $0.025 | 7.5% | None listed |
| Southwold 5,473 · 14 km | Low | $0.021 | 7.5% | Yes |
| Malahide 9,995 · 15 km | Low | $0.022 | 7.5% | Yes |
St. Thomas (low) has the heaviest fire record of Central Elgin’s neighbours, and Central Elgin (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Central Elgin faces
What to do about the hazards Central Elgin faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Central Elgin’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Central Elgin sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Central Elgin floods.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Central Elgin, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Central Elgin
Is Central Elgin at risk of wildfire?
Very little by the national record: Central Elgin’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Central Elgin flood?
Central Elgin’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
Is radon a problem in Central Elgin?
In Health Canada’s survey, 7.5% of 93 homes tested in Central Elgin’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Central Elgin?
About $0.020 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Central Elgin.
How is Central Elgin’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Central Elgin’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).