Photo: Peter Giesbrecht · CC BY-SA 3.0Wildfire low, radon 7.5%: how Aylmer stands on hazards
Since 1986 almost nothing has burned near Aylmer: 0% of the land within 25 km, or 0.000% a year. NRCan expects $0.025 of shaking damage a year per $1,000 of buildings in Aylmer, near the typical $0.030. Hazard risk gives Aylmer a grade of B+, from earthquakes and radon alone.
What stands out about Aylmer’s hazards
For Aylmer, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Aylmer faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Aylmer grades B+ for hazard risk
The grade weighs Aylmer’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #491 of 866 in Ontario and #1,094 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Wildfire is rare near Aylmer: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Aylmer’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
In a typical year 0.000% of the land near Aylmer burns; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%, and both are low.
Forest fuel is scarce around Aylmer: 0.5% of the land within 5 km, 0.7% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Ontario · highest of 871
Little or nothing burns around Aylmer in a typical year; 638 of the 871 towns in Ontario share that, and Sioux Lookout leads at 0.16%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Measured against 2,610 towns, Aylmer is in the largest group, low (92%), and at its floor, while 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Aylmer
Flood studies whose area touches Aylmer, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
NRCan’s inventory is silent on Aylmer, so any flood map would be the municipality’s own.
Towns with a flood study on file
Missing from a well-mapped province: Aylmer has no study, where 69% of towns in Ontario have one against 58% nationally.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
The grade leaves flood out, since a study area says nothing about how many of Aylmer’s homes are at risk.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Aylmer $0.025 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.8 times the typical $0.030: Aylmer’s $0.025 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Below the middle in Ontario: Aylmer’s $0.025 against a median of $0.043; Alexandria has $0.21.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Around half of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Aylmer (53%).
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Aylmer.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon about average around Aylmer: 7.5% over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Measured across the Elgin-St. Thomas Health Unit: radon tests
7.5% of tested homes around Aylmer were over the guideline, much like the typical Canadian town at 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
More homes top the guideline around Aylmer (7.5%) than in the typical town in Ontario (4%); 1.1% went over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Aylmer is in the 5–10% band with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 26% have more.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Radon varies from house to house in Aylmer, so the survey is a reason to test, not a result for yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Aylmer
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Aylmer; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Aylmer come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Aylmer’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aylmer | Low | $0.025 | 7.5% | None listed |
| Malahide 9,995 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.022 | 7.5% | Yes |
| Central Elgin 15,230 · 14 km | Low | $0.020 | 7.5% | Yes |
| Bayham 7,935 · 14 km | Low | $0.022 | 7.5% | None listed |
| St. Thomas 49,388 · 15 km | Low | $0.023 | 7.5% | Yes |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Aylmer (low); Malahide comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Aylmer faces
What to do about the hazards Aylmer faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Aylmer until then.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Aylmer’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Aylmer without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. For Aylmer, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Aylmer
How is Aylmer’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Aylmer B+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Does Aylmer flood?
Nothing is listed for Aylmer on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Aylmer?
About $0.025 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Aylmer.
Is radon a problem in Aylmer?
In Health Canada’s survey, 7.5% of 93 homes tested in Aylmer’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Aylmer at risk of wildfire?
Hardly at all on record: 0% of the land within 25 km of Aylmer since 1986, a low band, though small grass fires aren’t mapped.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).