Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domainAround Lincoln, 17% of tested homes have radon above the guideline
Fire reaches the land around Lincoln now and then: 4.3% within 25 km since 1986 (0.17% a year), below the high band. Seismic risk in Lincoln sits near the middle: $0.048 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Lincoln grades C− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Lincoln’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Lincoln: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Lincoln faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Lincoln: C−
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Lincoln with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #42 of 60 in New Brunswick and #2,405 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Fire reaches the land around Lincoln: 0% within 5 km, 4.3% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Lincoln’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
At 0.17% of the land a year, Lincoln’s burn rate is moderate; the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
The 5 km ring around Lincoln’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 10 km out.
The nearer ring around Lincoln is less wooded (61% forest fuel) than the land out to 25 km (77%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 60
Lincoln ranks 5th of the 60 towns in New Brunswick for burn rate, at 0.17% a year; Tracadie leads with 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Moderate puts Lincoln above most of Canada’s 2,610 towns, yet 2.1% rank high or very high and 5.4% share its band.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Lincoln is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB
Flood studies whose area touches Lincoln, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB holds the flood mapping that covers Lincoln (2020), linked below.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
93% of towns in New Brunswick have a flood study, more than Canada’s 58%; Lincoln has one too.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Lincoln floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Lincoln: $0.048 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Nothing unusual about Lincoln’s ground: $0.048 against a typical $0.030, 1.6 times.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.048, Lincoln is above the typical town in New Brunswick ($0.036); St. Stephen has the most at $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More earthquake risk than most: only 31% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are above Lincoln.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Lincoln’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Lincoln: 17% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
More homes than usual test high around Lincoln: 17% against 6.6% for the typical Canadian town. Nobody publishes radon tests for Lincoln alone, so this card uses the figure for the Region 3 health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Ordinary for towns in New Brunswick at 17% over 200 Bq/m³ (20% is the median), the area around Lincoln had 7.1% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Lincoln sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
One home in Lincoln can be high while next door is low; a three-month test settles it.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Lincoln
Alerts for Lincoln come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Lincoln are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Lincoln
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | Moderate | $0.048 | 17% | Yes |
| New Maryland 4,455 · 8.6 km | Low | $0.043 | 17% | None listed |
| Oromocto 9,451 · 8.7 km | High | $0.051 | 17% | Yes |
| New Maryland 3,198 · 8.7 km | Moderate | $0.046 | 17% | None listed |
| Burton 5,424 · 12 km | High | $0.041 | 17% | Yes |
| Starlight Village 5,108 · 13 km | Low | $0.036 | 17% | Yes |
| Maugerville 1,808 · 13 km | Moderate | $0.044 | 17% | Yes |
Fire is heaviest around Oromocto (high), against moderate for Lincoln.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Lincoln faces
What to do about the hazards Lincoln faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Lincoln’s.
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Lincoln until then.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Lincoln without grading them.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Lincoln’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Lincoln
Does Lincoln flood?
A flood study covers Lincoln on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory; open the owner’s map to check a street, since flood isn’t graded.
Is Lincoln at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 4.3% of the land within 25 km of Lincoln has burned since 1986, the last in 2025, a moderate band that leaves Risk alone.
How is Lincoln’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Lincoln grades C− for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Lincoln?
Expected earthquake damage in Lincoln comes to $0.048 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Is radon a problem in Lincoln?
In Health Canada’s survey, 17% of 112 homes tested in Lincoln’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).