Radon is Grand Falls’ main hazard: 29% of tested homes in its area top Health Canada’s guideline
For Grand Falls, wildfire history is close to nil: 0% of nearby land since 1986, 0.001% a year. Earthquake risk in Grand Falls is ordinary: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.046 a year per $1,000 of value, close to the typical town’s $0.030. Grand Falls grades D for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Grand Falls’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Grand Falls: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Grand Falls faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Grand Falls: D
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Grand Falls with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Grand Falls: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Grand Falls’ homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
With 0.001% burned a year, Grand Falls is among the many low-band places (the typical Canadian town 0.000%).
No fire has burned within 5 km of Grand Falls’ homes since 1986; the nearest burn is 22 km away.
Within 5 km of Grand Falls, 42% of the land is forest fuel; widen the ring to 25 km and it is 49%.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 61
Grand Falls ranks 42nd of the 61 towns in New Brunswick for burn rate (0.001% a year), in the lower half; Tracadie leads at 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Grand Falls, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB has mapped flooding for Grand Falls (1 study)
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Grand Falls: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
The flood study touching Grand Falls is Service New Brunswick - GeoNB’s, dated 2020; its own map shows the zones street by street.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Flood maps are common in New Brunswick: 93% of towns have one, against 58% nationally, and Grand Falls is among them.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Grand Falls’ homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Ordinary seismic risk in Grand Falls: $0.046 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
1.5 times the typical $0.030: Grand Falls’ $0.046 is ordinary.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
At $0.046, Grand Falls is above the typical town in New Brunswick ($0.036); St. Stephen has the most at $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
In the upper part of Canada’s range: 31% of its 2,611 towns expect more damage than Grand Falls.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Grand Falls’ buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Grand Falls: 29% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Radon runs above the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Grand Falls’ area, at 29%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon runs higher around Grand Falls than in most towns in New Brunswick: 29% over the guideline (20% is typical), 4.7% over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
One home in five or more tests over the guideline around Grand Falls; 3.1% of Canada’s 2,611 towns are in that band and 1.5% higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A survey sample isn’t a map: any home in Grand Falls can be high, and a three-month test is the only way to know.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Not measured by town: radon tests (the Region 4 health region)
Weather and fire alerts for Grand Falls
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Grand Falls; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
In fire season, check CWFIS for danger and active fires around Grand Falls, and listen to local authorities for orders.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Grand Falls’ neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Falls | Low | $0.046 | 29% | Yes |
| Denmark 1,412 · 11 km | Low | $0.049 | 17% | Yes |
| Grand Falls / Grand-Sault 5,465 · 11 km | Low | $0.048 | 29% | Yes |
| Drummond 2,113 · 14 km | Low | $0.055 | 29% | Yes |
| Saint-André 1,987 · 17 km | Low | $0.054 | 29% | Yes |
| Tobique 20 1,042 · 19 km | Low | $0.040 | 17% | Yes |
Tobique 20 (low) has the heaviest fire record of Grand Falls’ neighbours, and Grand Falls (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Grand Falls faces
What to do about the hazards Grand Falls faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Grand Falls’.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Grand Falls.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Grand Falls’ homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Grand Falls is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Grand Falls
Does Grand Falls flood?
There is flood mapping for Grand Falls on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Is Grand Falls at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of Grand Falls has burned since 1986, the last in 2013, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Grand Falls?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Grand Falls’ buildings lose $0.046 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Is radon a problem in Grand Falls?
In Health Canada’s survey, 29% of 86 homes tested in Grand Falls’ area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How is Grand Falls’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Grand Falls D, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).