Photo: Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit , Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center · Public domain17% of homes tested in Tobique 20’s area are above the radon guideline
Wildfire is rare near Tobique 20: 0% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.001% a year. For earthquakes Tobique 20 is middling, $0.040 a year per $1,000 against $0.030 for the typical town. Tobique 20 grades C− for hazard risk; wildfire is low here, so it earns no credit.
What stands out about Tobique 20’s hazards
For Tobique 20, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Tobique 20 faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Hazard risk in Tobique 20: C−
Two inputs always count for Tobique 20, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Tobique 20: 0.3% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Tobique 20’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Tobique 20 is 0.001%, low beside 0.000% for the typical Canadian town.
Near or far, forest fuel covers a similar share around Tobique 20: 51% within 5 km and 49% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 61
In the lower half in New Brunswick: Tobique 20 at 0.001% a year, 42nd of 61, far from Tracadie’s 0.28%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Tobique 20, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
A flood study covers Tobique 20, from Service New Brunswick - GeoNB: 1 on the inventory
Flood studies whose area touches Tobique 20, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
For Tobique 20 the inventory points to Service New Brunswick - GeoNB’s 2020 study, whose map is the one to check.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Tobique 20 is one of the 93% of towns in New Brunswick with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Tobique 20 to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Tobique 20 $0.040 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Nothing unusual about Tobique 20’s ground: $0.040 against a typical $0.030, 1.3 times.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in New Brunswick is $0.036; Tobique 20, at $0.040, is right beside it, and St. Stephen tops the list at $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 43% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Tobique 20.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Only shaking damage to buildings in Tobique 20 is counted; landslides, liquefaction, tsunami and fire after a quake aren’t.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Tobique 20: 17% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Tobique 20’s area, at 17%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places. Tobique 20 doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the Region 3 health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
7.1% of tests around Tobique 20 passed 600 Bq/m³; over 200, its 17% matches the median in New Brunswick, 20%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
The 10–20% band holds 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns, Tobique 20 among them; 4.6% rank above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Health Canada advises testing every home, Tobique 20’s included, whatever the area’s figure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Tobique 20
Alerts for Tobique 20 come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Tobique 20 to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Tobique 20’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobique 20 | Low | $0.040 | 17% | Yes |
| Perth-Andover 1,609 · 3.6 km | Low | $0.045 | 17% | Yes |
| Perth 1,113 · 9.2 km | Low | $0.043 | 17% | Yes |
| Grand Falls 1,114 · 19 km | Low | $0.046 | 29% | Yes |
Fire is no heavier anywhere nearby than around Tobique 20 (low), with Perth-Andover next at low.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Tobique 20 faces
What to do about the hazards Tobique 20 faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Tobique 20.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Tobique 20 is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Tobique 20.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Tobique 20’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Tobique 20
Is Tobique 20 at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0% of the land around Tobique 20 since 1986 (last in 2013); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
How big is the earthquake risk in Tobique 20?
About $0.040 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Tobique 20.
Does Tobique 20 flood?
There is flood mapping for Tobique 20 on the national inventory, each study linked to its owner’s map, none of them graded.
Is radon a problem in Tobique 20?
Around Tobique 20, 112 survey homes were tested and 17% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
How is Tobique 20’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Tobique 20 C−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).