Photo: Quintin Soloviev · CC BY 4.0High radon around Fredericton: 17% of homes tested in the area exceed 200 Bq/m³
Fire reaches the land around Fredericton now and then: 2.2% within 25 km since 1986 (0.09% a year), below the high band. Shaking is about as much of a worry in Fredericton as in most places, at $0.039 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Fredericton grades C− for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Fredericton’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Fredericton: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Fredericton faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Fredericton grades C− for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Fredericton, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #23 of 60 in New Brunswick and #2,308 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Fire reaches the land around Fredericton: 0% within 5 km, 2.2% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Fredericton’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
The yearly burn rate around Fredericton is 0.09%, above 0.000% for the typical Canadian town but under the high band.
Nothing inside 5 km of Fredericton’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 16 km off.
There is forest near Fredericton’s homes (63% within 5 km) and more of it further out (78% within 25 km).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in New Brunswick · highest of 60
Tracadie burns fastest in New Brunswick at 0.28% a year; Fredericton, at 0.09%, ranks 6th of 60.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 5.4% of Canada’s 2,610 towns share the moderate band with Fredericton, and 2.1% sit above it.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Service New Brunswick - GeoNB has mapped flooding for Fredericton (1 study)
Flood studies whose area touches Fredericton, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
A 2020 study by Service New Brunswick - GeoNB covers Fredericton, and its map, not the inventory, shows the zones.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inland Flood Mapping in New Brunswick and Updated Sea-Level Rise and Flooding Estimates for New Brunswick Coastal Sections 2020 | Service New Brunswick - GeoNB | 2020 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Its flood study puts Fredericton with 93% of towns in New Brunswick; Canada’s share is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Fredericton’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Earthquakes cost buildings in Fredericton $0.039 per $1,000 a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Earthquake losses in Fredericton, $0.039 per $1,000, are in line with the typical $0.030 (1.3 times).
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Fredericton ($0.039) matches the middle in New Brunswick ($0.036), far from St. Stephen’s $0.16.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Middle of the pack: 45% of Canada’s 2,611 towns have more earthquake risk than Fredericton.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Fredericton’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Fredericton: 17% of tested homes over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Region 3 health region
Radon runs above the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Fredericton’s area, at 17%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Fredericton, 17% of tests topped the guideline, close to the typical town in New Brunswick (20%); 7.1% were over 600.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Fredericton sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Fredericton only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Fredericton
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Fredericton; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
For fires near Fredericton, the national fire information system maps danger and active fires daily; local authorities give any evacuation order.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Fredericton’s neighbours compare on hazards
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericton | Moderate | $0.039 | 17% | Yes |
| Devon 30 1,105 · 2.5 km | Low | $0.030 | 17% | Yes |
| New Maryland 4,455 · 7.6 km | Low | $0.043 | 17% | None listed |
| Starlight Village 5,108 · 11 km | Low | $0.036 | 17% | Yes |
| Maugerville 1,808 · 12 km | Moderate | $0.044 | 17% | Yes |
| Saint Marys 5,701 · 13 km | Low | $0.034 | 17% | Yes |
| Lincoln 8,093 · 14 km | Moderate | $0.048 | 17% | Yes |
Maugerville burns a little more than Fredericton, in the same moderate band (moderate here).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Fredericton faces
What to do about the hazards Fredericton faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- How close is the forest edge?
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Fredericton’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Fredericton floods.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Fredericton sits in.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Fredericton’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Fredericton
How is Fredericton’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Fredericton C−, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is Fredericton at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 2.2% of the land within 25 km of Fredericton has burned since 1986, the last in 2025, a moderate band that leaves Risk alone.
Is radon a problem in Fredericton?
In Health Canada’s survey, 17% of 112 homes tested in Fredericton’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Does Fredericton flood?
Fredericton’s area has been studied for flooding, and the owner’s map shows which streets lie in a zone; the grade leaves flood out.
How big is the earthquake risk in Fredericton?
About $0.039 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Fredericton.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).