Hazards in Spence: wildfire low, radon over the guideline in 12% of tested homes
The national fire record shows next to nothing around Spence, 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.001% a year). Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Spence grades B+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Spence’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Spence: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Spence faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Spence grades B+ for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Spence, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 66 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Wildfire is rare near Spence: 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986, 0% within 5 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Spence’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Forty years of fire maps put Spence at 0.001% a year, low next to the typical Canadian town’s 0.000%.
Fire has stayed at least 21 km from Spence’s homes since 1986.
Around Spence the forest is thin or far off: 0% of the land within 5 km and 0% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Flin Flon (Part) burns fastest in Manitoba at 1.68% a year; Spence, at 0.001%, ranks 31st of 189.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Spence is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Spence
Flood studies whose area touches Spence, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Nationally, Spence has no listed flood study; the municipality is the place to ask.
Towns with a flood study on file
Spence has no flood study on file; only 18% of towns in Manitoba do, against 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood is shown here, never graded: a study says where a map exists, not how many of Spence’s homes stand in a flood zone.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Spence: $0.006 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
0.2 times the typical $0.030: Spence’s $0.006 is low for Canada.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Manitoba is $0.006; Spence, at $0.006, is right beside it, and Virden tops the list at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Spence.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The model counts damage to Spence’s buildings and their occupants from shaking only: not liquefaction, landslides, tsunami or fires after a quake.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Data for earthquake risk covers the city of Winnipeg
Test for radon in Spence: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
Spence’s survey area reads 12% over the guideline, well past the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Spence’s area, at 12%, is close to the median in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
One test in ten or more tops the guideline around Spence, as in 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 4.6% go higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Spence; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Winnipeg health region
Weather and fire alerts for Spence
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Spence; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Spence come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Spence
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spence | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Central Park 4,328 · 0.4 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| West Alexander 5,161 · 0.7 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| St. Matthews 5,699 · 0.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| South Portage 3,037 · 1.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Daniel McIntyre 9,584 · 1.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Centennial 4,483 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
Among its neighbours Spence has the most fire on record (low); Central Park follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Spence faces
What to do about the hazards Spence faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Spence’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Spence sits in.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Spence’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Spence floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Spence
Is radon a problem in Spence?
Around Spence, 66 survey homes were tested and 12% came in over 200 Bq/m³, a guide to the area, not to any one home.
Does Spence flood?
With 0 studies on the inventory, Spence’s flood risk is unmapped nationally; check with the municipality before buying.
How big is the earthquake risk in Spence?
Expected earthquake damage in Spence comes to $0.006 a year for each $1,000 that buildings are worth.
Is Spence at risk of wildfire?
Fire has reached 0% of the land around Spence since 1986 (last in 2012); at low, it neither helps nor hurts the grade.
How is Spence’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Spence grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).