Photo: Herb Neufeld · CC BY 2.0Centennial’s hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 12% of area homes over the radon guideline
No wildfire is mapped within 25 km of Centennial’s homes since 1986 (0% of the land, 0.001% a year). Seismic risk runs low: $0.006 of expected damage per $1,000 of buildings a year, the typical town $0.030. Centennial grades B+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Centennial’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Centennial: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Centennial faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Centennial grades B+ for hazard risk
The grade weighs Centennial’s seismic risk and radon equally, and wildfire is one-sided: a high band counts against a town, a low one earns nothing.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. Only 66 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Few fires near Centennial: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Centennial’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
A burn rate of 0.001% a year keeps Centennial in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
Since 1986 the nearest fire to Centennial’s homes came within 20 km, never inside 5 km.
Around Centennial the forest is thin or far off: 0% of the land within 5 km and 0.1% within 25 km is forest fuel.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Flin Flon (Part) burns fastest in Manitoba at 1.68% a year; Centennial, at 0.001%, ranks 31st of 189.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Centennial, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
No flood study is listed for Centennial
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Centennial: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
There is no study for Centennial on the national flood inventory, which is far from complete.
Towns with a flood study on file
No study touches Centennial; in Manitoba, 18% of towns have one, below Canada’s 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Centennial floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Little shaking expected in Centennial: $0.006 a year per $1,000
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Centennial’s $0.006 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Nobody publishes earthquake risk for Centennial alone, so this card uses the figure for the city of Winnipeg.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Centennial ($0.006) matches the middle in Manitoba ($0.006), far from Virden’s $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earthquakes cost less around Centennial than in 88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Centennial’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Radon runs high around Centennial: 12% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline.
Centennial’s area, at 12%, is above the 6.6% of the typical Canadian town, so testing is worth more here than most places. Centennial doesn’t get its own radon tests figures; the ones here come from the Winnipeg health region.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Around Centennial, 12% of tests topped the guideline, about the same as the typical town in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Centennial sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Centennial; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Centennial
Alerts for Centennial come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Centennial come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Centennial’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centennial | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| West Alexander 5,161 · 0.6 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Central Park 4,328 · 0.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Spence 4,378 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| William Whyte 11,432 · 1.4 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| South Portage 3,037 · 1.4 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| North Point Douglas 2,670 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
West Alexander (low) has the heaviest fire record of Centennial’s neighbours, and Centennial (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Centennial faces
What to do about the hazards Centennial faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Centennial’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Centennial’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. NRCan’s inventory says where flood mapping exists, not where water goes; the map’s owner is the authority for Centennial.
- Radon is a survey. About 14,000 homes were tested across Canada in 2009–2011, and the share over the guideline for Centennial is its health region’s, the survey’s design unit.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Centennial
Is Centennial at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of Centennial has burned since 1986, the last in 2012, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
Does Centennial flood?
Nothing is listed for Centennial on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How is Centennial’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Centennial B+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Is radon a problem in Centennial?
In Health Canada’s survey, 12% of 66 homes tested in Centennial’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Centennial?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Centennial $0.006 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).