Photo: Kat1144 · CC BY-SA 4.0Roslyn’s hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 12% of area homes over the radon guideline
Since 1986 almost nothing has burned near Roslyn: 0% of the land within 25 km, or 0.001% a year. Shaking is less of a worry than in most places, at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value ($0.030 typical). Roslyn grades B+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Roslyn’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Roslyn: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Roslyn faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Roslyn grades B+ for hazard risk
Risk averages earthquakes and radon; wildfire joins only where it pulls the average down, so a town like Roslyn with little fire nearby would get no credit for it.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Only 66 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Roslyn has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Roslyn’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
A burn rate of 0.001% a year keeps Roslyn in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
The 5 km ring around Roslyn’s homes is clear of burns since 1986, the nearest 22 km out.
Forest makes up 0% of the land within 5 km of Roslyn and 0% within 25 km, little for a forest fire to run through.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Flin Flon (Part) burns fastest in Manitoba at 1.68% a year; Roslyn, at 0.001%, ranks 31st of 189.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Beside 2,610 Canadian towns, Roslyn reads low, with 92% of them; only 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Roslyn
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Roslyn: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
Nationally, Roslyn has no listed flood study; the municipality is the place to ask.
Towns with a flood study on file
Roslyn has no flood study on file; only 18% of towns in Manitoba do, against 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood mapping is shown for Roslyn to be opened and checked, never turned into a grade.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Roslyn: $0.006 per $1,000 of buildings a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Roslyn’s $0.006 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Figures for earthquake risk are published for the city of Winnipeg as a whole, not for Roslyn alone.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Earthquake risk around Roslyn ($0.006) matches the middle in Manitoba ($0.006), far from Virden’s $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Toward the quiet end of Canada’s range: 88% of its 2,611 towns sit above Roslyn.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
The loss is to Roslyn’s buildings alone, from ground shaking; infrastructure and secondary hazards are left out.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
12% of homes tested around Roslyn are over the radon guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Area-wide: radon tests, counted over the Winnipeg health region
At 12% over the guideline, the area around Roslyn beats the typical Canadian town’s 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon around Roslyn is ordinary for towns in Manitoba: 12%, beside a median of 12%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Roslyn is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The survey sampled homes around Roslyn; it can’t tell you your basement’s level.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Roslyn
Alerts for Roslyn come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Alert Ready carries evacuation orders for Roslyn to phones; CWFIS shows the day’s fire danger.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Roslyn
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roslyn | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| McMillan 3,568 · 0.5 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| West Broadway 6,537 · 0.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| River-Osborne 5,090 · 0.9 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Earl Grey 5,152 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Crescentwood 3,060 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Broadway-Assiniboine 5,871 · 1.3 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
Among its neighbours Roslyn has the most fire on record (low); McMillan follows (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Roslyn faces
What to do about the hazards Roslyn faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Radon figures pool the survey’s home tests by area: postal areas once their boundaries arrive, the 2007 health region around Roslyn until then.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Roslyn’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Roslyn’s figure is its subdivision’s.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. Flood studies cover areas of every size, which is why the page lists them for Roslyn without grading them.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Roslyn
Does Roslyn flood?
Nothing is listed for Roslyn on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
Is Roslyn at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of Roslyn has burned since 1986, the last in 2012, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
Is radon a problem in Roslyn?
In Health Canada’s survey, 12% of 66 homes tested in Roslyn’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
How big is the earthquake risk in Roslyn?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Roslyn’s buildings lose $0.006 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
How is Roslyn’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Roslyn grades B+ for hazard risk, from earthquakes and radon, with wildfire counted only where it lowers the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).