Photo: Kat1144 · CC BY-SA 4.0Earl Grey’s hazards at a glance: a low wildfire record and 12% of area homes over the radon guideline
The burned-area map is nearly blank around Earl Grey, 0% within 25 km since 1986, 0.001% a year. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Earl Grey grades B+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Earl Grey’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Earl Grey: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Earl Grey faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Earl Grey grades B+ for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Earl Grey’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Only 66 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Earl Grey has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km since 1986
Past fire around Earl Grey’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Low: the land around Earl Grey burns at 0.001% a year, where the typical Canadian town sees 0.000%.
Fire has stayed at least 23 km from Earl Grey’s homes since 1986.
Little near Earl Grey’s homes can carry a forest fire; only 0% of the land within 5 km is forest fuel, and 0% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
Flin Flon (Part) burns fastest in Manitoba at 1.68% a year; Earl Grey, at 0.001%, ranks 31st of 189.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Some fire is mapped around Earl Grey, but not enough to leave the low band, where 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns are; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Earl Grey
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Earl Grey: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
There is no study for Earl Grey on the national flood inventory, which is far from complete.
Towns with a flood study on file
Mapping in Manitoba reaches 18% of towns, below the 58% across Canada, and not Earl Grey.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Nothing here counts toward Risk; the studies are pointers to the maps their owners keep for Earl Grey.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Earl Grey just $0.006 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Shaking costs the typical town $0.030 a year; in Earl Grey it is only $0.006, 0.2 times as much.
Behind earthquake risk sits data gathered across the city of Winnipeg, with Earl Grey one part of it.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
The median in Manitoba is $0.006; Earl Grey, at $0.006, is right beside it, and Virden tops the list at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earthquakes cost less around Earl Grey than in 88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Earl Grey’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Earl Grey: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Shared with the rest of the Winnipeg health region: radon tests
A higher share than most: 12% of tested homes around Earl Grey, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon around Earl Grey is ordinary for towns in Manitoba: 12%, beside a median of 12%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Earl Grey is in the 10–20% band, with 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; only 4.6% are higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
The share describes the area, not a house: in Earl Grey as anywhere, test to be sure.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Earl Grey
Environment and Climate Change Canada issues the weather alerts for Earl Grey; Alert Ready carries the urgent ones to phones, radio and TV.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Smoke and fire warnings for Earl Grey come through Environment Canada and Alert Ready; the fire map is CWFIS’s.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Earl Grey
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earl Grey | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| McMillan 3,568 · 0.6 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Crescentwood 3,060 · 0.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Rockwood 4,554 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Lord Roberts 5,104 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Roslyn 4,411 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Grant Park 2,898 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
The neighbour with the most fire is McMillan (low), still no more than Earl Grey (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Earl Grey faces
Practical steps for Earl Grey’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Earl Grey floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. Shaking damage is modelled from the ground, the buildings and the odds of each quake, and published for whole subdivisions such as Earl Grey’s.
- Wildfire counts one way. The wildfire figure is the share of land within 25 km of Earl Grey’s homes burned each year from 1986 to 2025, past fire rather than a forecast, and it can only lower Risk.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Earl Grey sits in.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Earl Grey
Is radon a problem in Earl Grey?
The area’s survey found 12% of 66 tested homes above Health Canada’s guideline, so a three-month test is worth doing in Earl Grey.
How big is the earthquake risk in Earl Grey?
In NRCan’s seismic model, Earl Grey’s buildings lose $0.006 per $1,000 of value in an average year.
Does Earl Grey flood?
The inventory has 0 studies for Earl Grey, and an empty list isn’t a clean bill: the municipality holds any flood maps.
How is Earl Grey’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Earl Grey’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Is Earl Grey at risk of wildfire?
Some, but Earl Grey’s low band (0% of nearby land burned since 1986, latest 2012) is short of the level that counts.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).