Wildfire low, radon 12%: how Jefferson stands on hazards
Fire has left almost no mark near Jefferson: 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986, 0.001% a year. Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Jefferson grades B+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Jefferson’s hazards
For Jefferson, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Jefferson faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Jefferson grades B+ for hazard risk
Two inputs always count for Jefferson, earthquakes and radon; the third, wildfire, counts only against a town.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. The radon share rests on 66 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Jefferson: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Past fire around Jefferson’s homes, from the national burned-area record, with the fuel within 5 km.
Fire claims 0.001% of the land around Jefferson each year, a low band, with the typical Canadian town at 0.000%.
Fire has stayed at least 16 km from Jefferson’s homes since 1986.
With 0% forest fuel within 5 km and 0.1% within 25 km, the land around Jefferson gives a fire little to burn.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
At 0.001% a year, Jefferson is near the top in Manitoba: 31st of 189, behind Flin Flon (Part) (1.68%).
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
The low band takes in 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns, Jefferson among them, though its rate is above zero; 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Jefferson
What Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists for Jefferson: who studied flooding and where to see their maps.
An empty entry for Jefferson on the inventory isn’t proof of safety; ask locally for flood maps.
Towns with a flood study on file
No study touches Jefferson; in Manitoba, 18% of towns have one, below Canada’s 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Jefferson floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Earthquakes cost buildings in Jefferson just $0.006 per $1,000 a year
Expected yearly building losses from earthquakes, from Natural Resources Canada’s model.
Jefferson’s $0.006 is a fraction of the typical town’s $0.030 (0.2 times as much): quiet ground by Canadian standards.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: Jefferson at $0.006 beside a median in Manitoba of $0.006, with Virden on top at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Most of Canada’s 2,611 towns (88%) face more earthquake damage than Jefferson.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Jefferson.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean). · Earthquake risk: one figure for all of the city of Winnipeg
Radon runs high around Jefferson: 12% of tested homes over the guideline
Long-term radon tests in homes across the survey area, against Health Canada’s guideline. · Measured across the Winnipeg health region: radon tests
Radon runs above the typical Canadian town (6.6%) in Jefferson’s area, at 12%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Jefferson’s area, at 12%, is close to the median in Manitoba (12%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
One test in ten or more tops the guideline around Jefferson, as in 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 4.6% go higher.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
A low area share in Jefferson doesn’t clear a house, nor does a high one condemn it: test.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Where to get warnings in Jefferson
Alerts for Jefferson come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Fire danger and active fires near Jefferson are mapped daily by the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System; evacuation orders come from the municipality or province.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
How Jefferson’s neighbours compare on hazards
Wildfire band, earthquake risk, radon and flood studies for each place nearby.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Seven Oaks 3,244 · 1.0 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Garden City 6,794 · 1.1 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Templeton-Sinclair 3,987 · 1.2 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| St. John's 8,492 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Inkster-Faraday 3,700 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Luxton 3,047 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
None of the places around has more fire nearby than Jefferson (low); Seven Oaks comes closest (low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Jefferson faces
What to do about the hazards Jefferson faces, and what to ask before you buy.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Earthquakes are modelled. Seismic risk is NRCan’s model of yearly building losses from shaking, averaged over many years and given for Jefferson’s census subdivision (a neighbourhood shows its city’s).
- Wildfire counts one way. For Jefferson, wildfire means how much nearby land burned in the past forty years, a one-way input that can pull Risk down and nothing more.
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Jefferson sits in.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Jefferson floods.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Jefferson
Is radon a problem in Jefferson?
In Health Canada’s survey, 12% of 66 homes tested in Jefferson’s area were above 200 Bq/m³, though only a test tells you about one house.
Is Jefferson at risk of wildfire?
Less than most of Canada: 0% of the land within 25 km of Jefferson has burned since 1986, the last in 2012, a low band that leaves Risk alone.
How big is the earthquake risk in Jefferson?
NRCan’s model expects shaking to cost buildings in Jefferson $0.006 a year for every $1,000 of their value, on average over many years.
Does Jefferson flood?
Nothing is listed for Jefferson on the national inventory (0); local maps may still exist with the municipality.
How is Jefferson’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Jefferson’s Hazard risk grade is B+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).