Photo: Peter Broster · CC BY-SA 4.0Wildfire low, radon 12%: how Grant Park stands on hazards
Wildfire barely registers for Grant Park, at 0% of the land within 25 km since 1986 (0.001% a year). Earthquakes matter little: NRCan’s model puts building losses at $0.006 a year per $1,000 of value, against $0.030 for the typical town. Hazard risk gives Grant Park a grade of B+; its wildfire band pulls it down.
What stands out about Grant Park’s hazards
For Grant Park, from NRCan’s seismic model, Health Canada’s radon survey, the national burned-area record and the flood map inventory.
What Grant Park faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Grant Park grades B+ for hazard risk
Seismic risk and radon set Grant Park’s grade, wildfire can drag it down, and flood mapping stays out of it.
Its place: #10 of 185 in Manitoba and #940 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: The seismic figure is a long-run average from NRCan’s model, not a prediction. Only 66 homes were tested in the survey area, so the radon share is rough. The burned-area record misses fires under about 10 ha and most grass and farm fires.
Few fires near Grant Park: 0% within 5 km, 0% within 25 km
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Grant Park’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
A burn rate of 0.001% a year keeps Grant Park in the low band (the typical Canadian town: 0.000%).
Fire has stayed at least 24 km from Grant Park’s homes since 1986.
Land that isn’t forest covers nearly all the ground around Grant Park: forest fuel is 0% within 5 km and 0% within 25 km.
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in Manitoba · highest of 189
The land around Grant Park burns at 0.001% a year, the 31st highest rate of 189 towns in Manitoba; Flin Flon (Part) tops it at 1.68%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Beside 2,610 Canadian towns, Grant Park reads low, with 92% of them; only 7.5% rank higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
The flood map inventory lists nothing for Grant Park
Flood studies whose area touches Grant Park, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Canada’s Flood Map Inventory lists no study whose area touches Grant Park, which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped.
Towns with a flood study on file
Grant Park has no flood study on file; only 18% of towns in Manitoba do, against 58% across Canada.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Flood studies don’t enter the grade; they are listed so you can open the official map for Grant Park.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Low seismic risk in Grant Park: $0.006 per $1,000 of buildings a year
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
At $0.006 per $1,000, Grant Park carries 0.2 times the typical Canadian town’s earthquake risk ($0.030): low.
For earthquake risk, the only official count covers all of the city of Winnipeg, Grant Park included.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Typical for its province: Grant Park at $0.006 beside a median in Manitoba of $0.006, with Virden on top at $0.007.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
88% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Grant Park.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
What a quake does after the shaking, fire, landslides, tsunami, falls outside NRCan’s figure for Grant Park.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
Test for radon in Grant Park: 12% of area homes were over the guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline.
A higher share than most: 12% of tested homes around Grant Park, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Radon around Grant Park is ordinary for towns in Manitoba: 12%, beside a median of 12%.
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
More high tests than most: Grant Park sits in a band that only 22% of Canada’s 2,611 towns share, with 4.6% above.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Neighbouring homes in Grant Park can differ a lot; only a long-term test tells you about yours.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011). · Area behind the radon tests figures: the Winnipeg health region
Where to get warnings in Grant Park
Alerts for Grant Park come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Grant Park come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Grant Park
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Park | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Rockwood 4,554 · 0.5 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Earl Grey 5,152 · 1.5 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| South River Heights 2,632 · 1.6 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Point Road 3,290 · 1.7 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Crescentwood 3,060 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
| Central River Heights 2,736 · 1.8 km | Low | $0.006 | 12% | None listed |
Rockwood (low) has the heaviest fire record of Grant Park’s neighbours, and Grant Park (low) matches or beats it.
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Grant Park faces
Practical steps for Grant Park’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Clear needles and wood nearby.
- Keep a grab-and-go bag ready.
- In smoke, stay in; filter air.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Ask the municipality for flood maps.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. The radon share comes from about 14,000 long-term home tests in 2009–2011, pooled for now by the 2007 health region Grant Park sits in.
- Wildfire counts one way. Burned land within 25 km of where people live, averaged over 1986–2025 and checked for fuel near homes, is the measure; it looks back, not ahead, and only ever counts against Grant Park.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. A study’s area can be a whole watershed or province, so being on the inventory says a map exists, not that a home in Grant Park floods.
- Earthquakes are modelled. The earthquake figure is an expected loss, not a forecast, worked out by NRCan for each census subdivision, Grant Park’s included.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Grant Park
Is radon a problem in Grant Park?
12% of the 66 homes Health Canada tested around Grant Park topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
Is Grant Park at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Grant Park’s band is low, with 0% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2012), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Grant Park flood?
No study on Canada’s Flood Map Inventory covers Grant Park (0), which doesn’t mean it has never been mapped, so ask the municipality.
How big is the earthquake risk in Grant Park?
About $0.006 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Grant Park.
How is Grant Park’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Hazard risk gives Grant Park B+, weighing earthquakes and radon and counting wildfire only against it.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).