Photo: Ken Walker · CC BY 2.5Central Saanich has one of Canada’s highest earthquake risks: $0.86 a year per $1,000, 29 times the typical town’s
Wildfire is rare near Central Saanich: 0.2% of the land within 25 km has burned since 1986, a burn rate of 0.004% a year. In Health Canada’s survey, just 1.8% of homes tested in the area exceeded 200 Bq/m³ (6.6% typical). Central Saanich grades C+ for hazard risk, with wildfire counted against it.
What stands out about Central Saanich’s hazards
Four national sources, each read for Central Saanich: earthquakes, radon, past fires and flood studies.
What Central Saanich faces
Each hazard against its own yardstick; meters run from low to high on that yardstick.
Wildfire
Earthquakes
Radon
Flood study
Central Saanich grades C+ for hazard risk
Earthquake risk and radon make Central Saanich’s grade; wildfire can only lower it, never raise it, and flood studies are listed but not scored.
Its place: #190 of 254 in British Columbia and #1,808 of 2,589 Canadian towns.
How sure: Earthquake losses are a model’s expectation over many years, not a forecast for any one. The radon share rests on 55 home tests in the survey area, so a few homes move it. Small fires and grass fires are largely missing from the national burned-area record.
Little of the land around Central Saanich has burned: 0% within 5 km, 0.2% within 25 km since 1986
Fires mapped since 1986 around where Central Saanich’s residents live, and the fuel next to their homes.
Next to the typical Canadian town (0.000% a year), Central Saanich’s 0.004% is in the low band.
Nothing inside 5 km of Central Saanich’s homes has burned since 1986, and the nearest scar is 6.1 km off.
The nearer ring around Central Saanich is less wooded (45% forest fuel) than the land out to 25 km (70%).
Shares of land within 5 and 25 km of populated blocks: burned at least once in 1986–2025 (CWFIS burned-area composite), forest fuel and grass (fire behaviour fuel types, 2026, 250 m grid).
Burn rate a year, towns in British Columbia · highest of 255
In the lower half in British Columbia: Central Saanich at 0.004% a year, 144th of 255, far from Oliver’s 0.98%.
Each bar: the yearly average share of land within 25 km of a town’s homes that burned, 1986–2025 (CWFIS); the seven highest towns of 2,500 people or more.
Central Saanich is in the low band with 92% of Canada’s 2,610 towns; 7.5% sit in moderate or higher.
Bands of the yearly burn rate: low under 0.05%, moderate under 0.25%, high under 1%, very high 1% or more; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System: National Burned Area Composite 1986–2025 and fire behaviour fuel types (2026), Natural Resources Canada. Measured within 25 km and 5 km of each populated dissemination area; past fire, not a forecast.
Central Saanich is on the flood map inventory: 1 study, by Capital Regional District
Flood studies whose area touches Central Saanich, from NRCan’s inventory, each linked to its owner.
Capital Regional District studied flooding in an area that includes Central Saanich (2021); open its map to see which streets lie in a flood zone.
| Study | By | Year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Regional Coastal Flood Inundation Mapping Project | Capital Regional District | 2021 | final |
Towns with a flood study on file
Central Saanich is one of the 76% of towns in British Columbia with a flood study on file; across Canada it is 58%.
NRCan Canada Flood Map Inventory: a study footprint touching the town’s boundary; towns of 2,500 people or more.
Listed, not scored: a flood study proves a map exists, not that Central Saanich floods.
The inventory’s own caution (NRCan): “The Canada Flood Map (CFM) does not include every flood hazard map in Canada and may be incomplete or contain inaccuracies. It should not be relied upon as the official source of flood mapping information. Furthermore, if a map appears to be missing, this does not necessarily mean that the area has never been mapped. For the official version of a map, updated information, or confirmation of applicable regulations, please contact the local authority responsible for flood mapping.”
Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory; links go to each study’s owner.
Shaking is Central Saanich’s costliest hazard: $0.86 a year per $1,000
NRCan’s seismic risk model: the damage shaking is expected to do to buildings each year, on average over many years.
Central Saanich’s $0.86 is about 28.7 times the typical town’s $0.030: it sits in one of Canada’s more active seismic zones.
Shaking damage a year per $1,000 of building value
Central Saanich’s $0.86 tops the median in British Columbia, $0.36, though Duncan reaches $1.33.
NRCan seismic risk model (2022): mean yearly building loss per $1,000 of value; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Only 0.2% of Canada’s 2,611 towns expect more shaking damage than Central Saanich.
Each column: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more in that range of yearly loss per $1,000 (NRCan, 2022).
Roads, pipes and bridges aren’t in Central Saanich’s figure, nor landslides or tsunami: it is buildings and shaking.
Natural Resources Canada, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model (2022), by census subdivision (2016 boundaries; a few 2021 subdivisions take their residents’ mean).
1.8% of homes tested around Central Saanich are over the radon guideline
Health Canada’s survey of long-term home tests: the share above the 200 Bq/m³ guideline. · The radon tests numbers here cover the South Vancouver Island health region
A lower share than most: 1.8% of tested homes around Central Saanich, the typical Canadian town 6.6%.
Tested homes over 200 Bq/m³
Over 600 Bq/m³
Central Saanich’s area, at 1.8%, is close to the median in British Columbia (1.8%).
Health Canada radon survey (2009–2011), by 2007 health region; medians of towns of 2,500 people or more.
Under 5% puts Central Saanich with 37% of Canada’s 2,611 towns; 63% have more high tests.
Each bar: the share of Canada’s towns of 2,500 people or more whose survey area had that share of tests over 200 Bq/m³.
Basements, soil and how a house is sealed decide its radon, so in Central Saanich only a test can say.
Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes (2009–2011).
Weather and fire alerts for Central Saanich
Alerts for Central Saanich come from Environment and Climate Change Canada and, for emergencies, Alert Ready.
| Alert | What it means |
|---|---|
| Warning | Severe weather is happening or about to: act now. |
| Watch | Conditions favour severe weather: be ready. |
| Advisory | Weather that is less severe but could disrupt the day. |
| Special weather statement | Unusual weather worth knowing about. |
| Special air quality statement | Poor air, often wildfire smoke. |
Evacuation orders for Central Saanich come from the municipality or the province, while CWFIS maps fire danger every day.
Weather alerts (ECCC) · Alert Ready · Fire danger and active fires (CWFIS)
Hazards in the places around Central Saanich
The same four hazards for the places next door.
| Town | Wildfire | Quake $/1,000 | Radon | Flood study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Saanich | Low | $0.86 | 1.8% | Yes |
| East Saanich 2 1,962 · 3.5 km | Low | $0.81 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Highlands 2,753 · 7.5 km | Low | $0.37 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Sidney 13,445 · 9.4 km | Low | $0.76 | 1.8% | Yes |
| North Saanich 12,986 · 10 km | Low | $0.73 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Saanich 126,011 · 12 km | Low | $0.76 | 1.8% | Yes |
| Electoral Area A, Cowichan Valley 5,156 · 12 km | Low | $0.75 | 0.9% | Yes |
The fire record around Highlands is a touch heavier than Central Saanich’s, but the band is the same: low (here low).
Radon is the survey area’s figure, so neighbours in one area share it.
Get ready for what Central Saanich faces
Practical steps for Central Saanich’s hazards, most pressing first.
- Test for three months in winter.
- Over 200 Bq/m³: fix it.
- Kits are cheap; pros test too.
- Never drive through floodwater.
- Move papers and medicines upstairs.
- Ask whether your street is mapped.
- Drop, cover and hold on.
- Strap the water heater down.
- Keep 72 hours of supplies.
- Has it had a radon test?
- Check the address on the flood map.
- Are flood and wildfire insured?
- Is earthquake cover included?
What this data can and can’t tell you
- Radon is a survey. Health Canada’s survey tested some 14,000 homes over three months; until postal-area boundaries are loaded, Central Saanich takes its 2007 health region’s share.
- Flood studies aren’t flood zones. The flood inventory points to maps; it is incomplete and not the official source, so ask the municipality about any street in Central Saanich.
- Wildfire counts one way. Wildfire is read from the national burned-area record around Central Saanich’s homes since 1986, a history of fire that may lower Risk but never raises it.
- Earthquakes are modelled. NRCan models what earthquakes would cost buildings each year on average, subdivision by subdivision; Central Saanich’s figure is its subdivision’s.
Questions about flooding and hazards in Central Saanich
Is radon a problem in Central Saanich?
1.8% of the 55 homes Health Canada tested around Central Saanich topped the guideline; your own house needs its own test.
How is Central Saanich’s Hazard risk Grade worked out?
Central Saanich’s Hazard risk grade is C+, built on earthquakes and radon with a one-sided wildfire input.
How big is the earthquake risk in Central Saanich?
About $0.86 a year per $1,000 of building value, NRCan’s long-run expectation for Central Saanich.
Is Central Saanich at risk of wildfire?
Not much by Canadian standards: Central Saanich’s band is low, with 0.2% of the land within 25 km burned since 1986 (last in 2024), so wildfire doesn’t change its grade.
Does Central Saanich flood?
The inventory lists a study touching Central Saanich; whether a given street floods is on that map, not in the grade.
Seismic risk: Natural Resources Canada. Radon: Health Canada. Wildfire: Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. Flood studies: Natural Resources Canada, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Canada.
Sources: NRCan, Canada’s Seismic Risk Model 2022 · Health Canada, Cross-Canada Survey of Radon Concentrations in Homes · CWFIS, National Burned Area Composite and FBP fuel types · NRCan, Canada Flood Map Inventory. Under the Statistics Canada Open Licence.
Adapted from Statistics Canada (Census of Population 2021, population estimates 2025, 2021 census boundaries) under the Statistics Canada Open Licence; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada. Neighbourhood names in some cities © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL).